计及电力系统状态与设备停运故障双重不确定性的静态安全风险评估

Static Security Risk Assessment of Power Systems Considering State Uncertainty and Equipment Out-of-Service Uncertainty

  • 摘要: 如何快速准确地实现同时计及新能源出力不确定性及设备停运故障不确定性下的系统静态安全风险评估,一直倍受电力公司及研究者的重视。针对该问题,提出了系统静态安全风险评估评估指标体系、系统薄弱点辨识方法及快速计算方法,实现了设备停运故障与状态双重不确定性下的系统安全风险快速评估。文中把NA-SPAM(new adaptive sparse pseudo spectral approximation method)应用于随机潮流计算,首次实现了计算速度及精度同时满足要求的高效随机潮流计算,为安全风险评估奠定基础;进而,构建了基于随机潮流计算结果的安全风险评估指标体系,实现了同时考虑状态及设备停运故障不确定性的系统静态安全风险评估及薄弱点辨识。算例结果证实了所提指标体系及算法的有效性和先进性。研究成果促进了新型电力系统安全风险评估的研究及工程应用。

     

    Abstract: How to accurately and efficiently assess power system static security risk, taking into account both renewable energy output uncertainty and equipment out-of-service uncertainty, has always been valued by electric power companies and researchers. To address this issue, this study proposes a set of indices for power system static security risk assessment, along with their fast calculation method and a method for identifying vulnerable points. First, we apply the new adaptive sparse pseudo spectral approximation method (NA-SPAM) to stochastic power flow calculations, thereby realizing the efficient computation of stochastic power flow for the first time and laying a solid foundation for the system security assessment. Subsequently, a set of indices for static security risk assessment based on the results of stochastic power flow calculations, which consider the impacts of both state uncertainty and disturbance uncertainty, is designed and calculated. In addition, the vulnerable points of the system are identified. The sample results demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed set of indices and algorithm. The set of indices and its calculation methods proposed in the paper promote the progress of research and engineering applications of security risk assessment in the new power system.

     

/

返回文章
返回