王林川, 白 波, 于奉振, 袁明哲. 基于QPSO参数优化的WLSSVM短期负荷预测[J]. 现代电力, 2010, 27(5): 49-52.
引用本文: 王林川, 白 波, 于奉振, 袁明哲. 基于QPSO参数优化的WLSSVM短期负荷预测[J]. 现代电力, 2010, 27(5): 49-52.
Wang Linchuan, Bai bo, Yu Fengzhen, Yuan Mingzhe. Shortterm Load Forecasting Based on WLSSVM Method withParameter Optimization by QPSO[J]. Modern Electric Power, 2010, 27(5): 49-52.
Citation: Wang Linchuan, Bai bo, Yu Fengzhen, Yuan Mingzhe. Shortterm Load Forecasting Based on WLSSVM Method withParameter Optimization by QPSO[J]. Modern Electric Power, 2010, 27(5): 49-52.

基于QPSO参数优化的WLSSVM短期负荷预测

Shortterm Load Forecasting Based on WLSSVM Method withParameter Optimization by QPSO

  • 摘要: 为了解决负荷非线性特性导致的预测模型难以准确建立的问题, 提出一种基于量子粒子群优化(QPSO)参数选择的加权最小二乘支持向量机(WLSSVM)的短期负荷预测模型和方法。首先, 利用量子粒子群优化方法来对模型进行训练, 从而选出最优超参数。其次, 采用具有良好泛化性能的WLSSVM回归模型弥补损失的鲁棒性。文中以黑龙江电网短期负荷预测为例, 将该方法与一般LSSVM模型的预测结果进行了对比分析, 结果表明此方法能明显提高预测精度。

     

    Abstract: In order to solve the problem that load forecasting model is difficult to accurately establish because of the nonlinear characteristics of load, the weighted least squares support vector machine (WLSSVM) method based on quantumbehaved particle swarm optimization (QPSO) is introduced to build shortterm load forecasting models. Firstly, the quantum particle swarm optimization method is used to train the model to obtain the optimal hyper parameters. Then the WLSSVM regression model with good generalization performance is used to strengthen robustness. In addition, the forecasting results by this method are compared with that by general LSSVM model, which show that this method can significantly improve the prediction accuracy. In the end, the shortterm load forecasting of Heilongjiang power grid is simulated by using of this method and the results verify its validity.

     

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