黄银燕, 于超, 黄文新, 覃智君, 毕乐明, 杨琳. 基于传感器网络与高斯过程回归的楼宇负荷预测[J]. 现代电力, 2021, 38(6): 664-673. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2020.0416
引用本文: 黄银燕, 于超, 黄文新, 覃智君, 毕乐明, 杨琳. 基于传感器网络与高斯过程回归的楼宇负荷预测[J]. 现代电力, 2021, 38(6): 664-673. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2020.0416
HUANG Yinyan, YU Chao, HUANG Wenxin, QIN Zhijun, BI Leming, YANG Lin. Building Load Forecasting Based on Sensor Network and Gaussian Process Regression[J]. Modern Electric Power, 2021, 38(6): 664-673. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2020.0416
Citation: HUANG Yinyan, YU Chao, HUANG Wenxin, QIN Zhijun, BI Leming, YANG Lin. Building Load Forecasting Based on Sensor Network and Gaussian Process Regression[J]. Modern Electric Power, 2021, 38(6): 664-673. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2020.0416

基于传感器网络与高斯过程回归的楼宇负荷预测

Building Load Forecasting Based on Sensor Network and Gaussian Process Regression

  • 摘要: 建筑电力能耗的准确预测不仅对配电网运行的经济性和安全性具有重要作用,而且对建筑节能方案的制定也有参考意义。由于楼宇负荷受多种因素的影响,预测精度难以大幅提高。为了提高楼宇负荷预测的准确度,提出了基于传感器网络与高斯过程回归的楼宇负荷预测方法。首先,通过基于超宽频雷达的人员存在检测传感器网络对室内的建筑占有率进行检测,并将建筑占有率作为负荷预测模型的特征之一。其次,构建高斯过程回归模型,利用其拟合出负荷与相关影响因素的非线性函数,并基于采样的近似推断算法推断出模型的超参数最大后验估计值,进而提高短期负荷预测准确度。最后,通过对比不同协方差函数的高斯过程回归模型的预测效果,甄别出最优协方差函数,进一步提高预测精度。通过算例分析可知:采用所提方法比未考虑建筑占有率的传统高斯过程回归方法的平均绝对百分比误差降低了9.68%,验证了所提方法的有效性和准确性。

     

    Abstract: The accurate prediction of building power consumption not only plays an important role in the economy and security of distribution network operation, but also possesses important reference significance for the formulation of building energy-saving programs. Because the building load is affected by many factors, it is hard to greatly improve the accuracy of building load forecasting. To improve the forecasting accuracy of building load, based on sensor network and Gaussian process regression a building load forecasting method was proposed. Firstly, the indoor building occupancy was detected by the personnel presence detection sensor based on ultra-wideband (UWB) radar network, and the building occupancy was taken as one of the characteristics of the load prediction model. Secondly, a Gaussian process regression model was constructed, and this model was utilized to fit the nonlinear function of the load and related influencing factors, and based on the sampling approximate inference algorithm the maximum posteriori estimation of the model's hyperparameters was deduced to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting. Finally, by means of comparing prediction effects of Gaussian process regression model with different covariance functions, the optimal covariance function was identified to further improve prediction accuracy. The result of analyzing the computing example show that the average absolute percentage error obtained by the proposed method is reduced by 9.68% than that obtained by traditional Gaussian process regression, in which the building occupancy is not taken into account, thus both efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method are verified.

     

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