李正明, 高赵亮, 梁彩霞. 基于FCM和CG-DBN的光伏功率短期预测[J]. 现代电力, 2019, 36(5): 62-67.
引用本文: 李正明, 高赵亮, 梁彩霞. 基于FCM和CG-DBN的光伏功率短期预测[J]. 现代电力, 2019, 36(5): 62-67.
LI Zhengming, GAO Zhaoliang, LIANG Caixia. Short-term Prediction of Photovoltaic Power based on Combination of FCM and CG-DBN[J]. Modern Electric Power, 2019, 36(5): 62-67.
Citation: LI Zhengming, GAO Zhaoliang, LIANG Caixia. Short-term Prediction of Photovoltaic Power based on Combination of FCM and CG-DBN[J]. Modern Electric Power, 2019, 36(5): 62-67.

基于FCM和CG-DBN的光伏功率短期预测

Short-term Prediction of Photovoltaic Power based on Combination of FCM and CG-DBN

  • 摘要: 针对光伏输出功率非线性、波动大、不稳定等特征引起光伏功率短期预测不精确的问题,本文提出了一种基于相似日聚类和利用共轭梯度法(CG)改进深度信念网络(DBN)的组合模型预测方法。首先利用FCM聚类算法将原始数据按照隶属度进行相似日聚类,随后根据类别进行CG-DBN预测模型的建模,最后利用该模型进行光伏输出功率的短期预测。本文将方案应用于浙江龙游发电站,并将预测结果与传统预测模型进行了比较。最终得出,FCM和CG-DBN组合预测模型在光伏功率短期预测中的性能优于其他模型。

     

    Abstract: Aiming at nonlinearity, large fluctuation and instability of photovoltaic output power, this paper proposes a combined prediction model based on similar-day clustering and improved deep belief network (DBN) with conjugate gradient (CG). Fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm (FCM) is firstly used to perform similar-day clustering from raw data according to the membership degree. Then the CG-DBN prediction model is built based on the obtained categories to predict the short-term PV output. The scheme is applied to Longyou power station in Zhejiang province. The prediction results are compared with the traditional prediction model and prediction performance of the FCM and CG-DBN combination forecast model is better than other models.

     

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