Benefit and Risk Assessment for Electric Vehicle Charging Pile Based on Value at Risk

The increasing market penetration of electric vehicle (EV) promotes the large-scale construction of charging piles. At present the research on the construction of charging piles was concentrated on its optimized layout and economic analysis, and the attention was seldom paid to its risk-profit evaluation. To fill the research gap in this respect, firstly, based on the theory of full life-cycle an investment benefit model of the charging pile was established. Secondly, in allusion to the uncertainty factor of the charging quantity, the probability distribution of the return on investment (ROI) was calculated by Monte Carlo method. Thirdly, by means of Cornish-Fisher expansion the approximate quantile of ROI distribution under a certain level of confidence was solved to obtain the value at risk of the charging pile project, and the investment benefit risk of charging pile project was quantified by the value at risk. Finally, the frequently-used 66kW slow charging pile and 350kW quick charging pile were selected to perform the analysis on calculation examples. Analysis results show that the proposed method is suitable for the benefit risk assessment of EV charging pile, thus it could be utilized to assist the power grid company making reasonable decision-making during the invest in charging pile project.