Investment Decision of Energy Storage in Wind Power Generation Based on Real Options

To remedy the insufficiency existed in the analysis on whether the investment decision of applying lithium batteries to the energy storage for wind power generation was feasible or not, firstly, by means of contrasting discounted cash flow(abbr. DCF)and real option (abbr. RO) an investment decision framework based on RO was established. Secondly, a Black-Shooks real option pricing model for energy storage project, which satisfied the geometric Brownian motion hypothesis, was proposed, and the price derivatives in the Financial Toolbox of MATLAB software was utilized to conduct the sensitivity analysis on uncertain factors in the proposed model. Case study results show that applying the real option to the energy storage project at wind power generation side that possesses uncertain factors, the future profit can be predicted, thus it can provide flexible investment plan for the investor to avoid the investment mistake.