Market Price Risk Analysis Under Background of Renewable Energy Assumption Guarantee

Due to the fluctuation of the output of renewable energy mainly composed of wind power and photovoltaic generation, the grid-connection of high proportion renewable energy may bring risk to the clearing price of electricity market. For this reason, taking the guaranteed accommodation of renewable energy as boundary of the clearing models of electricity market, an electricity price risk assessment method considering the uncertainty of renewable energy was proposed. Firstly, the cardinality constrained sub-modularity-based technique was used to describe the uncertainty of renewable energy output, and a representative set of limited scenarios was generated. Secondly, an electricity market clearing model, taking into account the guaranteed accommodation of renewable energy, was established and a computing method of nodal price was put forward. Thirdly, a price risk assessment index system was proposed to assess the price risk caused by renewable energy uncertainty in the levels of node, region and system respectively. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method was verified by numerical examples. Analysis results show that using the proposed method both system price risk and nodal price risk brought by the uncertainty of renewable energy can be effectively assessed, and this method is available for reference in the relevant research on renewable energy participating in electricity market.