Research on Credit Risk Evaluation Model of New Energy Power Producers Based on Game Theory Combination Weights and Improved TOPSIS

The participation of new energy power producers (abbr. NEPP) in the market is the key path to realize the clean and low-carbon transformation of China’s energy system, but the uncertainty of its own output will lead to credit risk. therefore, it is necessary to evaluate NEPP’s credit risk and provide reference for promoting the classified management of enterprise credit risk. Based on the aspiration-ability-action framework, a credit risk evaluation index system of NEPP, in which three primary indices and 14 secondary indices were included, was designed. An index weighting method based on game theory combined with anti-entropy-weight (abbr. AEW) method and level based weight assessment (LBWA) method, and hierarchical weighting method, and a credit risk evaluation method based on difference and quotient grey correlation analysis and the credit risk evaluation method based on difference and quotient grey relation analysis improved technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (DQGRA-TOPSIS) method were constructed. Seven NEPPs were analyzed as the example, and the results show that the contract electricity compliance rate, spot market declaration deviation rate and output prediction deviation rate are the key factors affecting the credit risk of NEEPs. In addition, unfair competition of NEEP and the tax evasion behavior are also the focus of market credit management institutions. Results of ranking consistency test and LOO (Leave-One-Out) analysis show that the proposed model possesses strong robustness.