A Comprehensive Evaluation Method for Operational Risk of Virtual Power Plants Based on Bayesian Feedback Modified Cloud Model

Considering that the risk evaluation system and model of virtual power plant operation in China need to be established and improved, this paper mainly studies the comprehensive risk evaluation system of virtual power plant operation to provide support and guidance for the construction and operation of virtual power plant. Firstly, the comprehensive risk evaluation index library of virtual power plant is constructed by taking operation risk, economic risk, safety risk and management risk as first-level indexes, which provides support for safe and reliable operation evaluation of virtual power plant. Secondly, the comprehensive risk evaluation model of virtual power plant is proposed. AHP-OWA is used to assign weights to the indicators, and then the evaluation scores of all indicators are obtained through the cloud model evaluation method based on Bayesian feedback correction, which is used to evaluate the risk degree of virtual power plant and provide judgment basis for the operation improvement and optimization of virtual power plant. Finally, a virtual power plant is selected for example analysis to verify the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed virtual power plant risk evaluation index system based on Bayesian improved cloud model.