Analysis on Influencing Factors of Road Traffic Carbon Emission Oriented to Vehicle Electrification Substitution

To promote carbon emission reduction of road transportation and realize carbon peak as soon as possible, firstly the carbon emission of road transportation was measured and calculated. In addition to the carbon emissions from gasoline and fuel oil consumed by road traffic, the carbon emissions from coal electricity in charge volume were also taken into account. Then, STIRPAT model was used to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions from road transportation. Six factors, namely road transport GDP, car ownership, coal power ratio of charging capacity, road freight turnover and road passenger turnover, were selected to study the change of road transport carbon emission, and the contribution rate of road transport carbon emission of these six influencing factors was calculated and analyzed. Finally, by setting the baseline scenario and the concentrated emission reduction scenario, the future carbon emissions of road transportation in China were predicted, which provided development ideas for achieving the carbon peak of road transportation. The results show that on the premise of vigorously promoting electric vehicles, the change rate of the proportion of electric vehicles should be 37.91% from 2019 to 2030, and 1.70% after 2030. In addition, the ratio of clean energy should be increased so that the ratio of coal power in EV charging can reach -23%, which is more clean and low-carbon in terms of EV charging carbon emissions. At the same time, it is necessary to maintain the downward trend of 4.14% of highway passenger turnover and the slow growth of 4.84% of highway freight volume. China's highway traffic will be expected to achieve carbon peak before 2030.