Research on Estimation Method of Temperature-adjusting Load and Its Influence Factors

Temperature adjusting load includes the summer cooling load and the winter heating load, which has become the main reason for new highrecords of grid load. It is significant to successfully live through summer peaks by well knowing characteristics and their trends of local temperature adjusting load. Firstly, the temperature adjusting load of typical summer and winter month in Sichuan Province is estimated by the reference load comparison method. Secondly, the influence degree of main influence factors is assessed by the relevance and sensitivity analysis. In the end, the future tendency of temperature adjusting load in Sichuan Province is predicted by using of comprehensive grey prediction and regression method. The results show that temperature adjusting load is close related to temperature and the holdings amount of air-conditioner, which has higher relevance. People's tolerance to high and low temperature falls with the attitude changing of electricity consumption. There is big difference in the sensitivity of the temperature from summer cooling load and winter heating load, which is fairly close to the sensitivity of air-conditioner holdings. With the increasing of urbanization rate and the amount of air-conditioner holdings, it is predicted that temperature adjusting load will maintain at a high level in Sichuan Province during the year of 2013.