Long-term Load Characteristic Forecast of Provincial Power Grid Based on Electricity Structure Changes

Accurately mastering the development trend on long-term load characteristic of provincial power grid can effectively guide the prospect and rationality of power grid planning. It is identified through the fully analyzing on main influencing factors of the change in regional load characteristic that economic and electricity structures are the key factors influencing the change in regional long-term load characteristic. Then a forecasting model and its check method for long-term load characteristic of provincial power grid based on the change in electricity structure are built. By taking Anhui province as an instance, the load ratio and peak-valley ratio of each typical day at all seasons in 2020 and 2030 are predicted, and the forecast results are verified by taking that of European and American developed countries and Shanghai municipality as the reference. Results verify the rationality and effectiveness of this long-term load characteristic forecasting model, which can provide certain reference value for electricity market analysts and operators to master the variation trend of long-term load characteristic accurately.