A New Kind of Deterministic Wind Power Forecasting Model and Its Probabilistic Assessment

Most of the existing wind power forecasting is deterministic, but the deterministic forecasting is difficult to provide effective information for the system scheduling decision under uncertainty conditions due to stochastic and volatility of the wind power, and the probability forecasting can provide uncertainty information. A new deterministic forecasting method is proposed based on wavelet transform and fuzzy adaptive resonance mapping by using the historical data of numerical weather forecast and wind power. At the same time, based on quantile regression analysis, deterministic prediction results are probabilistically assessed by regarding confidence, the sharpness and the skill score as the index. Taking a wind electric field as an example, the deterministic forecast value and the probability assessment are given, which verify the validity of the proposed method.