The Spatial Effects Empirical Analysis Model of Provincial Electricity Demand in China Based on Spatial Panel Data

The growth of electricity demand is closely related to economic structure. This paper presents an empirical analysis model of electricity demand in China by considering the existence of spatial effects from regional development point of view. According to spatial panel data of electricity consumption in 30 provincial areas from 1999 to 2014, the influence of such economic structure factors as industrial structure, regional structure, distribution structure and energy structure on electricity demand and its spatial effect are analyzed. The spatial effects are set, tested and optimally selected by combing “from specific to general” method with “from general to specific” method, and a bias correction is carried out for fixed effect model. On the basis of overall analysis, a comparison analysis on the direct effects and the indirect effects of explained variables in different regions is made. The empirical analysis results show that the economic structure has an important influence on electricity demand, provincial electricity demand has obvious spatial interaction effects during the sample period, selected explained variables will change the electricity demand of sample provinces and its neighboring provinces, and the direct effect and indirect effect of explained variables in different regions are different obviously. In addition, the trends of electricity demand during the 13th Five-Year Plan period of China are analyzed and the proposal for the regional planning is put forward.