Potential Effects of Carbon Emissions Trading on China Power Generation Sector Based on Multi-agent Model

Before the formal implementation of GET trading mechanism, its reasonable design, especially the carbon allowance allocation, is necessary. In this paper, the potential impacts of different auction proportions for initial allowance allocation on electricity price, carbon price, carbon emissions and power source structure are analyzed by combining current widely applied uniform pricing auction mode based on multi-agent method. In addition, the difference between uniform pricing auction method and free allocation method is compared. The simulation results show that electricity price rise slightly with the increasing of auction proportion, and high-proportion auction will reduce carbon price and carbon emission. In terms of power source structure, clean power will develop faster and faster, auction method has more superiority on emission reduction than free-allocation method, and its effects on power generation sector are more obvious with the increasing of auction proportion. Based on above result, the appropriate auction proportions in the process of CET are suggested in this paper.