Forecasting the Charging Load of Large-scale Electric Vehicle and Its Impact on the Power Grid

Forecasting the spatial and temporal distribution of charging load of electric vehicle is the precondition of studying its charging effect on power grid, which is the foundation and basis of power grid planning and scheduling. Based on the influencing factors analysis of the charging load, a hierarchical division of the predicting area is proposed, and the model of describing vehicles travelling rules is built based on transition probability matrix according to its travel chain characteristics of main vehicles in different functional lands. According to the randomness and uncertainty of user charging behavior, the probability of vehicles charging at different destinations is established by applying fuzzy reasoning method and probability statistics method, and the Monte Carlo method is used to calculate charging load of different functional lands. In the end, taking a certain area of city A as an example, its future charging load is forecasted, spatial and temporal distribution of charging load in the area is obtained. In addition, the effects of charging load in different charging places on the power grid are analyzed.