耦合极点对称模态分解和小波包方法在短期风电出力 预测中的应用

Application of Extreme-point Symmetric Mode Decomposition and Wavelet Packet Decomposition Method in Short-term Wind Power Prediction

  • 摘要: 为降低风力发电的不确定性和波动性对电网造成的影响,提出一种耦合极点对称模态分解和小波包分解的门控循环单元神经网络预测模型。首先,对原始风电出力序列进行二次分解重构,充分挖掘出序列中的规律;之后,针对分解的子模态,使用门控循环单元神经网络进行预测;最后,将组合模型的预测结果与原始门控循环单元神经网络预测结果、反向传播神经网络预测结果进行对比。以新疆阿勒泰某风电场为算例,验证了该混合模态分解模型的有效性,结果表明所提模型可以显著提高短期风力发电的预测精度。

     

    Abstract: To mitigate the impact of uncertainty and volatility of wind power on the power grid, a gate recurrent unit neural network prediction model is proposed based on extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition and wavelet packet decomposition. Firstly, the original wind power output sequence is decomposed several times to thoroughly excavate the patterns among the sequences. Then, a gate recurrent unit neural network is employed to predict the decomposed sub-modes. Finally, the prediction results of the integrated model are compared with those of the gate recurrent unit neural network and BP neural network. Taking a wind farm in Altay, Xinjiang as an example, the validity of the model is verified. It has been demonstrated that the proposed model can substantially enhance the forecasting accuracy of short-term wind power generation.

     

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