基于气象辐照数据和引力搜索算法优化VMD-BiLSTM的光伏发电功率预测研究

Combinatorial Prediction Method Based on Meteorological Irradiation Data and GSA-optimized VMD-BiLSTM

  • 摘要: 为提高光伏发电功率预测精度,保证电力系统安全调度和稳定运行,提出一种基于变分模态分解(variational mode decomposition,VMD)和引力搜索算法(gravitational search algorithm,GSA)优化双向长短期记忆神经网络(bi-directional long short-term memory,BiLSTM)的组合预测方法。针对影响光伏发电功率的时序信号存在非线性和非平稳性特征的问题,选取倾斜辐照度、水平辐照度、温度、湿度等气象数据作为特征输入变量,利用VMD算法将其分解为若干个不同的模态并对每个分量分别进行建模;针对传统BiLSTM模型存在参数选择不确定性和收敛速度较慢的问题,引入GSA算法对模型参数优化,缩短手动调制参数的时间,提高超参数设置的精度和效率。使用南方某园区实际光伏发电数据集对所提模型性能进行验证,结果表明,与传统神经网络预测模型和固定参数组合预测模型相比,该方法具有更高的预测准确性和稳定性。

     

    Abstract: To enhance the prediction accuracy of photovoltaic power generation and ensure the safe scheduling and stable operation of the power system, a new combinatorial prediction method is proposed based on variational mode decomposition (VMD) and long short term memory (BiLSTM) optimized by gravitational search algorithm (GSA). To address the issue that the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of the temporal signal affect the photovoltaic power generation, meteorological data such as tilt irradiance, horizontal irradiance, temperature and humidity, are selected as the characteristic input variables. These data are subsequently decomposed into several different modes by the VMD algorithm, and each component is modeled individually. To address the uncertainty of parameter selection and slow convergence of traditional BILSTM model, the GSA algorithm is introduced to optimize model parameters. This approach not only shortens the time of manual parameter modulation, but also improves the accuracy and efficiency of hyperparameter configuration. The performance of the proposed model is verified using the actual PV power generation data set of a park in South China. The results indicate that, in comparison to the traditional neural network prediction model and fixed parameter combination prediction model, the proposed method exhibits superior prediction accuracy and stability.

     

/

返回文章
返回