基于混合监督学习的极端天气电力系统故障精准预警

Precise Early Warning of Extreme Weather-induced Power System Faults Based on Hybrid Supervised Learning

  • 摘要: 针对当前电力系统故障风险预警方法难以将耦合情况复杂的气象要素和故障精准映射,无法实现多类型极端天气下的多维气象特征提取,故障预警精度低的问题,提出有监督学习和无监督学习相结合的极端天气故障精准预警方法。首先,分析极端天气场景故障时刻的气象要素和故障的关联度,利用层次分析法为气象要素赋权,实现气象要素和故障之间的风险自适应赋权;其次,构建无监督的变分自编码训练网络对数据降维,优化风险权重特征,以精准表征气象要素和故障的映射关系;然后,在无监督学习网络解码器后嵌入基于随机森林算法的有监督网络,用以强化风险权重特征和电力故障的相关性;最后,利用支持向量机构建预警模型,将风险权重特征、设备数据和环境数据作为输入,实现电力系统的故障预警。通过实验分析,故障预警准确度达到87.13%,预警可提前事故发生时间15.19 min。

     

    Abstract: Aiming to address the challenges of the current power system fault risk warning methods in accurately mapping the meteorological elements and faults with complex coupling and its incapability in realizing multi-dimensional meteorological feature extraction under multiple types of extreme weather as well as the problem of low fault warning accuracy, in this paper we propose a combination of supervised and unsupervised learning as an accurate warning method for extreme weather-induced faults. First, the meteorological elements and fault correlations at the moment of failure in extreme weather scenarios are analyzed, and the hierarchical analysis method is utilized to assign weights to the meteorological elements, so as to realize the risk-adaptive assignments between the meteorological elements and the faults. Subsequently, a supervised network based on the random forest algorithm is embedded after the decoder of the unsupervised learning network, aiming to enhance the correlation between the risk weight features and power faults. Finally, the support vector mechanism is employed to construct an early warning model. The risk weight features, equipment data and environmental data are utilized as inputs to realize the fault early warning of the power system. Experimental analysis demonstrates that the fault warning accuracy reaches 87.13%, with the warning system capable of providing alerts 15.19 minutes prior to the occurrence of incidents

     

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