考虑碳交易成本与预测不确定性的源荷储优化调度方法

An Optimal Scheduling Method for Source-Load-Storage Systems Considering Carbon Trading Cost and Forecast Uncertainty

  • 摘要: 目前新能源发展迅速,各地中远期能源电力规划已经或即将出台,为使未来源–储资源具体建设与负荷需求相协调,提高新能源消纳率,降低运行成本。充分结合不同时间尺度下电力资源规划目标与未来负荷需求预测,构建了一种以系统总运行成本最低为目标引入模糊机会约束的调度模型针对规划资源进行了源荷储资源协调运行仿真,以2025年和2030年为中、长期时间节点,从置信度设置和多场景资源配置方案两个维度分别进行分析。不同方案模拟运行确定了地区电网降本增效的关键因素。研究发现,该模型可以作为未来设置备用容量等指标的有效参考手段,同时从经济性与绿色低碳目标角度考虑可以适当控制风光投产规模以达到经济与绿色的平衡,从风光水火储等方面提出了一定的配置建议为各地提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Currently, the new energy is developing rapidly. Medium- and long-term energy and power plans have either been introduced or are expected to be implemented in various places. These plans aim to coordinate the specific construction of the undeveloped source-storage resources with the load demand, improve the new energy consumption rate, and reduce operating costs. Fully combined with various time scales under the power resources planning objectives and future load demand forecasts, a system is developed with the objective of minimizing the total operating costs by introducing fuzzy chance constraints. For planning resources, the coordinated operation of source-load-storage resources is simulated. Taking 2025 and 2030 as the medium- to long-term time nodes, the analysis is conducted from two aspects: the confidence setting and multi-scenarios of the resource allocation scheme. The main study reveals that the model can serve as an effective reference tool for setting the future standby capacity and other indicators. From the perspective of economy and green low-carbon goals, the scale of wind power put into operation should be controlled properly to achieve a balance between economy and green. Our study provides valuable configuration reference from the perspectives of hydropower, thermal power, wind power, and storage power for various regions.

     

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