基于WD-CPO-VMD和组合聚合的短期净负荷预测研究

Short-term Net Load Forecasting Based on WD-CPO-VMD and Combinatorial Aggregation

  • 摘要: 随着新能源渗透比例的提高,针对净负荷较传统负荷波动更大、预测难度更高的问题,提出一种基于小波分解(wavelet decomposition,WD)和冠豪猪优化算法(crested porcupine optimizer,CPO)改进的变分模态分解(variational mode decomposition, VMD)的组合聚合预测模型。该模型包括二次分解模块和神经网络预测模块。由于净负荷波动性较强,首先,使用小波分解结合排列熵将原始数据分解成高频分量和低频分量,并利用冠豪猪优化算法改进的变分模态分解对高频分量进行二次分解;其次,将注意力机制融入长短期记忆网络,增强其关注重要信息的能力;最后,将高低频分量分别以矩阵聚合和矢量聚合形式输入改进的神经网络中,整合得到最终预测结果。算例分析表明,所提模型相比常见的预测模型取得了更好的预测效果,并且在趋势转折点提升效果更优,能更好地应对净负荷的突然变动。

     

    Abstract: With the growing penetration ratio of new energy, in this paper we propose a combined aggregation prediction model based on wavelet decomposition(WD), crested porcupine optimizer(CPO) and variational mode decomposition (VMD) to address the issue of more fluctuating waveform and the difficulty in predicting net load compared to traditional load. The model comprises a quadratic decomposition module and a neural network prediction module. Since the net load exhibits strong volatility, firstly, the original data is decomposed into high frequency components and low frequency components by wavelet decomposition combined with permutation entropy. The high frequency components are further decomposed using the variational mode decomposition method improved by the crown porcupine optimization algorithm. Secondly, the attention mechanism is integrated into the long short-term memory network to enhance its ability to focus on critical information. Finally, the high and low frequency components are integrated into the improved neural network through matrix aggregation and vector aggregation to obtain final prediction results. The example analysis demonstrates that the proposed model achieves better prediction effect compared to traditional prediction models, exhibiting an enhanced effect at trend turning point and better handling of sudden change in net load.

     

/

返回文章
返回