基于CEEMDAN-SE的多重交叉注意力BiTCN-Transformer短期风电功率预测

Short-term Wind Power Prediction Based on CEEMDAN-SE and Multiple-cross Attention BiTCN-Transformer

  • 摘要: 为进一步提升短期风电功率预测的准确性,提出一种考虑特征重构、多重交叉注意力、双向时间卷积神经网络(bidirectional temporal convolutional neural network,BiTCN)和Transformer组合的短期风电功率预测方法。考虑风电功率数据非平稳性、深层周期性与趋势性,在BiTCN与Transformer编码器并行特征提取的基础上,设计周期与趋势特征加强模块,发挥BiTCN对时序数据的双向全局依赖关系、局部空间特征与细节信息的提取能力,结合Transformer编码器能捕捉时序数据长期依赖关系和全局信息的提取能力,通过多重交叉注意力机制的时空特征融合,有效增强了模型的感知与表达能力。首先,原始功率数据与气象数据同时输入到BiTCN与Transformer编码器模块,分别进行双向空间特征、局部信息和长期时序特征的提取;其次,利用完全集成经验模态分解与自适应噪声–样本熵(complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise-sample entropy,CEEMDAN-SE)算法重构功率数据为趋势序列与周期序列,分别输入到BiTCN与Transformer编码器模块,实现周期与趋势特征加强;最后,基于多层交叉注意力融合特征提取结果,实现风电功率的短期精确预测。对比单模型和传统时序预测模型,结果表明,所提方法在预测精度上可得到有效提升,能缩小预测误差,证明了所提方法的有效性与实用性,在风电功率短期预测领域具有一定的应用价值。

     

    Abstract: To further improve the accuracy of short-term wind power prediction, a short-term wind power prediction method is proposed considering feature reconstruction, multiple cross-attention, and the combination of a Bidirectional temporal convolutional neural network (BiTCN) and Transformer. Considering the non-stationarity, deep periodicity and trend of wind power data, we design a periodicity and trend feature enhancement module based on the parallel feature extraction of BiTCN and Transformer encoder. This module utilizes the BiTCN’s capability to extract bidirectional global dependencies, local spatial features and detailed information of temporal data, and integrates them with the Transformer encoder to capture the temporal data, long-term dependencies, and global information. The model's perception and expression capabilities are significantly enhanced through spatio-temporal feature fusion with multiple cross-attention mechanisms. Firstly, the raw power data and meteorological data are simultaneously fed into the BiTCN and Transformer encoder modules to extract bi-directional spatial features, local information, and long-term temporal features, respectively. Secondly, the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise-sample entropy (CEEMDAN-SE) algorithm is employed to reconstruct the power data into a trend sequence and a periodic sequence. These sequences are subsequently input into BiTCN and Transformer encoder modules respectively, to enhance the periodic and trend features. Finally, the short-term wind power prediction is achieved with high precision based on the results of multi-layer cross-attention fusion feature extraction. Comparing the single model and the traditional time series prediction models, the results demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively improve the prediction accuracy and reduce the prediction error. This not only validates the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method but also has certain application value in the field of short-term wind power prediction.

     

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