基于组合赋权和灰色关联分析的变电站碳排放预警研究

Carbon Emission Early Warning of Substations Based on Combined Weighting and Grey Correlation Analysis

  • 摘要: 摘要:实现变电站碳排放预警可有效促进变电站低碳转型。为此,提出适用于变电站的混合多属性碳排放预警方法。首先,针对现有变电站碳排放特点,从经济、能效、环境3个维度建立变电站碳排放预警指标体系。其次,利用最大离差平方和的思想,构建基于组合赋权和灰色关联分析的变电站碳排放预警模型,并引入3σ原则建立碳排放各等级阈值区间,根据阈值区间确定变电站碳排放预警等级。最后,采用上述预警方法,对国内10所变电站样本采用上述预警方法,对国内10所变电站样本进行碳排放预警研究,重点分析不同预警等级下变电站碳排放风险的主要成因。结果表明:基于最大离差平方和的组合赋权法显著提高了预警模型的灵活性,灰色关联分析结合3σ原则可以全面准确地反映出各变电站的碳排放水平,预警结果为变电站管理者制定碳减排计划提供了理论参考。

     

    Abstract: Realizing the early warning of carbon emissions in substations can effectively promote the low-carbon transformation of substations. Therefore, a hybrid multi-attribute carbon emission early warning method suitable for substations is proposed. Firstly, based on the characteristics of carbon emissions from existing substations, an early warning index system for substation carbon emissions is established from three dimensions: economic viability, energy efficiency and environment impact. Secondly, adopting the idea of maximum deviation sum of squares, an early warning model for substation carbon emissions is constructed based on combined weighting and grey relational analysis. The threshold intervals of carbon emission levels are established through the introduction of the 3σ principle, and the early warning levels of substation carbon emissions are determined according to the threshold intervals. Finally, by employing the above-mentioned early warning method, a study is conducted on the carbon emission early warning for ten domestic substation samples In addition, the main reasons of carbon emission risk of substations under different early warning levels are analyzed. The results demonstrate that the combined weighting method based on the sum of squares of the maximum deviation significantly improves the flexibility of the early warning model, and the grey relational analysis combined with the 3σ principle can comprehensively and accurately reflect the carbon emission level of each substation. The early warning results provide theoretical reference for substation managers in formulating carbon emission reduction plans.

     

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