基于多输出高斯过程的电动汽车聚合可行域场景生成方法

A Scenario Generation Method for Electric Vehicle Clusters Based on Multiple Output Gaussian Process

  • 摘要: 电动汽车(electric vehicle,EV)具有规模大、随机性强的特点,需要在考虑不确定性的前提下建立其聚合可行域。该文提出基于多输出高斯过程(multiple output Gaussian process,MOGP)的EV聚合可行域的场景生成方法。首先,利用近期充电数据生成训练样本,以及时反映集群充电行为的变化规律。然后,为同时捕捉可行域包络线的横向与纵向相关性,提出基于MOGP的聚合可行域概率预测方法,并采用能量差分预处理方法,以维持EV集群能量包络线的单调性。最后,基于训练好的MOGP模型完成场景生成和场景约简,使用实际充电数据与现有方法进行对比验证。结果表明:由该方法生成的场景集在准确性与多样性方面表现最优,且生成的能量包络线场景更具有合理性。

     

    Abstract: Electric vehicles (EVs) have the characteristics of large-scale deployment and high randomness, thus necessitating the establishment of their aggregated feasible region under uncertain conditions. This study proposes a scenario generation method for the aggregated feasible region of EVs based on multiple output Gaussian processes (MOGP). Firstly, training samples are generated directly from recent charging data to timely reflect the changing patterns of cluster charging behavior. Subsequently, to simultaneously capture the horizontal and vertical correlations of the feasible region envelope, a probability prediction method for aggregated feasible regions based on MOGP is proposed, along with an energy differential preprocessing method to maintain the monotonicity of the energy envelope of the EV cluster. Finally, the process of scenario generation and reduction is completed based on the trained MOGP model. Comparisons are made between the proposed method and existing methods using actual charging data for validation. Results indicate that the scenario set generated by the proposed method exhibits optimal accuracy and diversity and the generated energy envelope scenarios are more reasonable.

     

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