基于多特征和BiLSTM-KAN的综合能源系统多元负荷短期预测

Multi-Load Short-term Forecasting for Integrated Energy Systems Based on Multi-features and BiLSTM-KAN

  • 摘要: 随着综合能源系统的持续部署与发展,多元负荷的准确预测已成为保障其安全可靠运行的关键。为此,提出一种基于多特征和双向长短期记忆网络–科尔莫哥罗夫–阿诺德网络(bidirectional long short-term memory and Kolmogorov-Arnold networks,BiLSTM-KAN)的综合能源系统多元负荷短期预测方法。首先,通过卷积神经网络–改进卷积块注意力(convolutional neural networks and improved convolutional block attention module,CNN-ICBAM)提取时域中多元负荷间的耦合特征。其中,改进的CBAM引入具有自适应能力的KAN网络,以帮助模型更有效地提取负荷特征。同时,利用傅里叶变换将负荷数据转换到频域,并采用CNN提取频域中的耦合特征,从而实现时域与频域特征的同时提取,获得更完整的多元负荷耦合特征。之后,使用长短期记忆网络提取负荷数据中的周期特征。最后,通过KAN网络进行拟合,得到预测结果。使用美国亚利桑那州立大学坦佩校区的综合能源系统负荷数据进行验证,并与现有几种方法进行对比,结果表明,该方法得到的加权平均绝对百分比误差最小。

     

    Abstract: With the continuous deployment and development of integrated energy systems, accurate multi-load forecasting has become an important guarantee for the safe and reliable operation of integrated energy systems. To this end, a multi-load short-term forecasting method for integrated energy systems based on bidirectional long short-term memory and Kolmogorov-Arnold networks (BiLSTM-KAN) is proposed. Firstly, the convolutional neural networks and improved convolutional block attention module (CNN-ICBAM) are used to extract the coupling features among multiple loads in the time domain. The improved CBAM adopts the adaptive KAN to help the model better extract load features. At the same time, the Fourier transform is used to convert the load data to the frequency domain, and CNN is used to extract the coupling features in the frequency domain, thus achieving simultaneous extraction of time domain features and frequency domain features. Then, the long short-term memory (LSTM) network is used to extract periodic features in the load data, and finally, the KAN network is used to fit and obtain the prediction results. This paper uses the integrated energy system load data from the Tempe campus of Arizona State University for validation and compares it with several existing methods. The results show that the weighted average absolute percentage error of this method is minimal.

     

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