千万千瓦级全清洁能源基地能源管控模式研究

Energy Management and Control Mode for Gigawatt-Scale All-Clean Energy Bases

  • 摘要: 提高电网运行稳定性的同时进一步提升能源基地调度经济性是能源系统发展的重要方向,与常规综合能源系统相比,千万千瓦级的全清洁能源基地中风电和光伏装机容量更为庞大,装机占比更高,导致整个系统的输出波动性更大,运行经济性难以保证,需要灵活性更高、实时调整能力更强的调度计划,在保障稳定输出的基础上提升运行经济性。基于以上因素,以青海新能源大基地为研究对象,结合其装机结构和资源特征,提出了一种多时间尺度两阶段优化调度方法。在第一阶段的日前调度中,利用第二日的风电、光伏及负荷功率预测数据,以最大化运行经济为目标,优化可控发电单元的出力调度。第二阶段实时优化调度中,根据风电、光伏实际出力和调度计划间的偏差,利用基于LSTM预测的模型预测控制(model predictive control,MPC)调整水电和储能可控单元的输出功率,以减小预测误差带来的经济性影响。最后,通过青海典型日段的实际数据进行仿真,并与一种调度策略进行对比,验证了该两阶段调度模型能够在满足系统供需平衡的前提下有效改善其运行经济性。

     

    Abstract: Improving the operational stability of the power grid while further enhancing the economic efficiency of energy dispatch is an important direction in the advancement of energy systems. Compared to conventional integrated energy systems, large-scale clean energy bases with gigawatt-scale installed capacity have significantly higher wind and solar power installed capacities, leading to greater output volatility and challenges in maintaining operational economic efficiency. This requires more flexible and real-time adjustable dispatch plans to enhance operational economy while ensuring stable output. Based on these factors, this study focuses on the Qinghai new energy base and proposes a multi-time-scale, two-stage optimization dispatch method, combining its installed capacity structure and resource characteristics. In the first stage of day-ahead scheduling, forecasting data for wind, solar, and load power for the following day are utilized to maximize operational economy by optimizing the output scheduling of controllable generation units. In the second stage of real-time optimization scheduling, adjustments are made the output power of hydropower and energy storage controllable units based on deviations between actual wind and solar power outputs and the dispatch plan. This adjustment employs a predictive control model (model predictive control, MPC) based on LSTM predictions to mitigate the economic impact of forecasting errors. Finally, actual data from typical days in Qinghai are simulated, and this two-stage scheduling model is compared with a scheduling strategy. In this manner, the two-stage scheduling model has been validated to have the capability of effectively improving the operation economy while maintaining system supply and demand balance.

     

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