基于时间卷积网络-双向长短期记忆网络的系统等效惯量短期预测方法

Short-term Prediction Method for System Equivalent Inertia Based on Temporal Convolutional Network and Bidirectional Long Short-term Memory Network

  • 摘要: 随着高比例可再生能源机组接入电网,电力系统等效惯量持续降低,系统的频率稳定性严重恶化。为此,提出一种基于时间卷积网络-双向长短期记忆网络(temporal convolutional network and bi-directional long short-term memory network,TCN-BiLSTM)的系统等效惯量短期预测方法。首先,基于皮尔逊相关系数、斯皮尔曼相关系数和肯德尔相关系数,选取对系统等效惯量影响程度较大的变量参与预测。其次,基于k均值聚类(k-means clustering,k-means)算法进行聚类分析,得到具有相似波动特征的数据子集。然后,建立基于TCN-BiLSTM的系统等效惯量短期预测模型,挖掘系统等效惯量与输入变量之间的映射关系,得到惯量预测结果。最后,采用实例数据验证所提方法的有效性,结果表明所提方法具有较高的预测精度,能够为电网调度提供可靠信息,提高系统的频率稳定性。

     

    Abstract: With a high proportion of renewable energy units connected to the power grid, the equivalent inertia of the power system continues to decline, and the frequency stability deteriorates significantly. To address this issue, a short-term prediction method for system equivalent inertia is proposed based on a temporal convolutional network and a bidirectional long short-term memory network (TCN-BiLSTM). Firstly, variables with a greater impact on the system equivalent inertia are selected for prediction based on the Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall correlation coefficients. Secondly, cluster analysis is performed using the k-means clustering (k-means) algorithm to obtain a data subset with similar fluctuation characteristics. Subsequently, a short-term prediction model for system equivalent inertia based on TCN-BiLSTM is established to mine the mapping relationship between system equivalent inertia and input variables, thereby obtaining the inertia prediction results. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified using example data. The results indicate that the proposed method exhibits high prediction accuracy, which can provide reliable information for power grid dispatching and improve the frequency stability of the system.

     

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