计及用户主观动态决策与演化的电动汽车集群可调度潜力边界域评估

Boundary Domain Assessment for Dispatchable Potential of Electric Vehicle Clusters Considering User Subjective Dynamic Decision-making and Evolution

  • 摘要: 随着电动汽车(electric vehicle,EV)大规模接入电网,其充电行为的随机性对电力系统稳定性带来了严峻挑战。尽管EV具备可观的调节潜力,但现有评估方法缺乏对用户选择及群体演化过程的动态刻画,导致难以有效评估集群可调度潜力的边界域与演化趋势。为此,提出一种融合多维半云模型与演化博弈的EV用户响应潜力评估方法。首先,基于聚类算法分析EV用户行为特性,并利用决策实验室-韦伯-费希纳算法量化用户主观因素。其次,基于半云模型构建用户响应意愿模型,并通过二维映射实现用户行为分类。最后,通过演化博弈模型揭示补偿电价机制对用户响应行为,与集群可调度潜力的动态影响。基于实际充电桩数据的仿真分析,验证所提评估方法在考虑用户行为特性和补偿电价激励影响下的有效性。

     

    Abstract: With the large-scale integration of electric vehicles (EVs) into the power grid, the stochasticity of their charging behaviors poses formidable challenges to power system stability. Although EVs possess considerable regulatory potential, existing evaluation methods lack dynamic characterization of user choices and group evolution processes. This limitation makes it difficult to effectively evaluate the boundary domains and evolution trends of cluster schedulable potential. To address this issue, an EV user response potential evaluation method is proposed, which integrates a multidimensional semi-cloud model and evolutionary game theory. Firstly, user behavior characteristics are analyzed using clustering algorithms. Subjective factors of users are then quantified using the Decision Laboratory-Webber-Fechner algorithm. Secondly, a user response willingness model is constructed based on the semi-cloud model. Furthermore, user behavior classification is achieved through two-dimensional mapping. Finally, the dynamic impacts of compensation electricity price mechanisms are analyzed. These impacts are explicitly revealed through an evolutionary game model, focusing on user response behaviors and the schedulable potential of EV clusters. Simulation analysis is conducted based on actual charging pile data. The effectiveness of the proposed evaluation method is verified by considering both user behavior characteristics and incentives of compensation electricity prices.

     

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