基于两阶段随机博弈的多虚拟电厂能量–调频市场联合交易策略研究

Two-stage Stochastic Game-based Trading Strategy for Multiple Virtual Power Plants in Joint Energy and Frequency Regulation Markets

  • 摘要: 虚拟电厂具有灵活快速调节能力,在当前火电占比下降、调频资源匮乏的形式下,是优质的调频资源。然而,可再生能源出力不确定、多主体博弈等因素不仅阻碍虚拟电厂参与调频的积极性,更威胁电力系统安全。因此,提出了基于两阶段随机博弈的多虚拟电厂能量–调频联合交易策略。首先,通过非合作博弈理论分析多主体博弈行为与价格波动的关系,建立了多虚拟电厂两阶段随机博弈模型。考虑到过度投标对电力系统安全的威胁,引入了条件风险概率进行风险管控。求解层面,通过多虚拟电厂解耦将原问题简化,并采用样本平均近似结合场景削减逼近复杂随机情形,设计了分布式最优响应算法求得最优交易策略。算例分析表明,所提方法不仅提高了虚拟电厂收益,更显著降低了过度投标风险,有利于提升调频服务可靠性。

     

    Abstract: Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) possess flexible and rapid regulation capabilities, making them a valuable resource for frequency regulation, particularly in the context of declining thermal power capacity and scarce frequency regulation resources. However, challenges such as uncertain renewable energy output and strategic behavior among multiple agents not only discourage VPPs from participating in frequency regulation but also pose significant risks to the power system. To address these issues, an optimal trading strategy based on a two-stage stochastic game is proposed to enable VPPs to participate in joint energy and frequency regulation market. First, the non-cooperative game theory is introduced to analyze the relationship between price fluctuations and competitive interactions among multiple VPPs, and a two-stage stochastic game model is established. To mitigate the security risks caused by overbidding, the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is incorporated into the model. For the solution methodology, the original problem is simplified by decoupling multiple VPPs, and the sample average approximation (SAA) combined with scenario reduction is applied to approximate the complex stochastic scenarios. Moreover, a distributed best-response algorithm is designed to obtain the optimal strategy. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed method not only enhances the profitability of VPPs but also significantly reduces the risk of overbidding, thereby contributing to the stability of power systems.

     

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