面向电网告警时序数据的风险智能评估

Intelligent Risk Assessment Framework for Power Grid Alarm Time-series Data

  • 摘要: 针对电网调控一体化模式下,电网设备产生的海量告警信息为调控员分析电网异常状态所带来的挑战,提出了面向电网告警时序数据的风险智能评估。首先对电网告警时序信息进行预处理,基于时序特征进行多元组划分;其次,对文本告警信息进行结构化处理,基于词频–逆文档频率和K-means提取文本数据特征并进行聚类;然后,构建基于长短期记忆神经网络的告警信息转移概率模型,建立告警信息风险评估模型,计算告警序列风险向量进行风险评估。以某电网不同电压等级厂站告警信息为例进行仿真和风险评估,与基于一阶马尔可夫的风险评估模型相比,基于长短期记忆神经网络的风险智能评估模型在35 kV厂站、110 kV厂站和220 kV厂站的高风险率分别提高了0.3594%、0.0360%和0.0184%。

     

    Abstract: To address the challenges faced by dispatchers in analyzing abnormal power grid states—caused by the massive volume of alarm information generated by power grid equipment under the integrated grid regulation and control mode—this study proposes an intelligent risk assessment methodology for temporal sequence data of power grid alerts. First, the power grid alarm information is pre-processed, and multi-group segmentation is performed based on temporal features. Next, the textual alarm information is structured, and text data features are extracted and clustered using term frequency-inverse document frequency and the K-means algorithm. Subsequently, an alarm information transition probability model based on the long short-term memory neural network is constructed, followed by the development of an alarm information risk assessment model to calculate the risk vector of alarm sequences for risk evaluation. Simulations and risk assessments are conducted using alarm information from substations at various voltage levels within a specific power grid. Compared to the risk assessment model based on a first-order Markov model, the risk assessment model based on the long short-term memory neural network increases the high-risk rate by 0.3594%, 0.0360%, and 0.0184% for 35 kV, 110 kV, and 220 kV substations, respectively.

     

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