基于ICSQPSO-CNN-GRU-Attention的风电场风速组合预测模型

Combined Wind Speed Prediction Model for Wind Farms Based on ICSQPSO-CNN-GRU-Attention

  • 摘要: 为提高风电场风速预测精度并解决多源数据融合与参数优化难题,提出基于改进混合布谷鸟量子粒子群优化算法(improved hybrid cuckoo search quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization,ICSQPSO)–卷积神经网络(convolutional neural network,CNN)–门控循环单元(gated recurrent unit,GRU)–注意力机制(attention mechanism)的组合预测模型。构建多模态特征融合框架,通过CNN提取空间特征,GRU捕捉时序依赖,结合注意力机制动态加权关键因子;设计ICSQPSO算法融合量子搜索和Lévy飞行策略优化模型超参数,避免局部最优。基于75天风场数据实验表明:该模型测试集均方根误差为1.537 m/s,平均绝对百分比误差为1.6%,较麻雀搜索算法、灰狼算法和粒子群优化模型分别降低10.1%、60.9%和62.4%,预测结果决定系数达0.9947。结果表明,该模型通过特征融合与参数优化有效提升复杂场景风速预测精度,为新能源消纳提供技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: To enhance the wind speed prediction accuracy in wind farms and address the challenges associated with multi-source data fusion and parameter optimization, a combined prediction model is proposed based on the improved hybrid cuckoo search quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization (ICSQPSO), a convolutional neural network (CNN), a gated recurrent unit (GRU), and an attention mechanism. A multimodal feature fusion framework is constructed, in which the CNN extracts spatial features, the GRU captures temporal dependencies, and the attention mechanism dynamically weights key factors. The ICSQPSO algorithm is designed to integrate quantum search and Levy flight strategies for optimizing model hyperparameters and avoiding local optima. Experiments based on 75 days of wind farm data show that the model achieves a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.537 m/s and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.6% on the test set. Compared with the sparrow search algorithm (SSA), grey wolf optimizer (GWO), and particle swarm optimization (PSO) models, the proposed method reduces the RMSE by 10.1%, 60.9%, and 62.4% respectively, and achieves a determination coefficient of 0.9947 for the prediction results. The results demonstrate that this model effectively improves wind speed prediction accuracy in complex scenarios through feature fusion and parameter optimization, providing technical support for new energy accommodation.

     

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