基于模态分解与机器学习的电力市场出清价格预测

Research on Electricity Market Clearing Price Prediction Based on Modal Decomposition and Machine Learning

  • 摘要: 电力市场出清价格的准确预测可为电力市场运行及相关政策规划的制定提供有效指导。构建了基于模态分解和机器学习的电力市场出清价格预测框架。首先,提出了基于STL模型的电力市场出清价格模态分解方法,将出清价格成功分解为趋势、周期和残差分量,并基于Pearson相关性分析和特征重要性分析方法构建了出清电价及其分量预测模型。然后,构建了ISSA-Informer模型、ISSA-BiGRU模型和ISSA-GRU模型,分别实现对趋势、周期和残差分量的准确预测。在此基础上采用特征融合方法构建STL-ISSA-ML模型,模型对电力市场出清价格预测结果的R2、MAE和MAPE分别为0.9894、11.33和2.92%。最后,通过时序分析和误差修正方法得到了修正的CSTL-ISSA-ML模型,模型对电力市场出清价格预测结果的R2、MAE和MAPE分别为0.9986、4.72和1.47%,相比于ISSA-Informer模型、ISSA-BiGRU模型和ISSA-GRU模型预测性能分别平均优化59.16%、69.18%和81.68%,验证了所提出的模态分解和机器学习预测框架的有效性,研究成果可为电力市场的健康发展提供理论支持和实践参考。

     

    Abstract: Accurate prediction of electricity market clearing prices provides effective guidance for electricity market operation and policy formulation. This study proposes a framework for predicting electricity market clearing prices based on modal decomposition and feature fusion. Firstly, a modal decomposition method for electricity market clearing prices based on STL model is proposed. The periodic time series data of clearing prices are successfully decomposed into trend components, periodic components, and residual components. Pearson correlation analysis and feature importance analysis methods are then employed to construct a clearing price and its component prediction model. Subsequently, the ISSA Informer model, ISSA BiGRU model, and ISSA-GRU model are developed to accurately predict the trend components, periodic components, and residual components, respectively. On this basis, the STL-ISSA-ML model is constructed using feature fusion method, achieving an R2of 0.9894, an MAE of 11.33, and a MAPE of 2.92%the model for electricity market clearing price forecasting. Finally, the modified CSTL-ISSA-ML model is obtained through time series analysis and error correction methods. The enhanced model achieves an R² of 0.9986, an MAE of 4.72, and a MAPE of 1.47%. Compared with the ISSA Informer model, ISSA BiGRU model, and ISSA-GRU model, the prediction performance is optimized by an average of 59.16%, 69.18%, and 81.68%, respectively, thereby validating the effectiveness of the proposed modal decomposition and feature fusion prediction framework The research findings provides theoretical support and practical reference for the healthy development of the electricity market.

     

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