数据–物理混合驱动的降雪全过程光伏功率预测方法

A Hybrid Data- and Physics-Driven Method for Forecasting Photovoltaic Power Throughout the Entire Snowfall Process

  • 摘要: 降雪全过程可以划分为降雪和覆雪两个阶段,这一过程中光伏板表面的积雪情况呈现出复杂的时序变化规律,数值天气预报难以反映光伏板所接受辐射的真实情况,增大了功率预测的难度。然而,目前缺乏针对降雪全过程中光伏功率预测的研究。为此提出一种基于数据–物理混合驱动的降雪全过程光伏功率预测方法。首先,构建基于BiGRU的功率预测模型获取初步预测结果,并分析降雪时段与覆雪时段功率预测误差的差异化特性;其次,构建基于XGBoost的数据驱动修正模型与基于改进Marion的物理驱动修正模型,分别利用两种模型的优势求解降雪全过程的预测结果修正量;最后,采用倒差加权策略动态组合不同修正结果,得到最终预测结果。使用冀北某光伏电站的数据验证了所提方法的有效性。

     

    Abstract: The entire snowfall process can be divided into two stages: snowfall onset and snow covering. During this process, the snow coverage on the surface of photovoltaic panels exhibits a complex time-series variation pattern, and the numerical weather forecast struggles to to reflect the actual solar irradiance received by photovoltaic panels, increasing the difficulty of power generation forecasting. However, there is currently a lack of research on photovoltaic power forecasting throughout the entire snowfall process. Therefore, this study proposes a hybrid data- and physics-driven method for photovoltaic power forecasting throughout the entire snowfall process. Firstly, a power forecasting model based on BiGRU is developed to obtain the initial prediction results, and the differential characteristics of power prediction errors during the snowfall onset and snow cover periods are analyzed. Secondly, a data-driven correction model based on XGBoost and a physics-driven correction model based on the improved Marion model are constructed to determine the correction terms of the forecasting results for the entire snowfall process by leveraging the strengths of the two models. Finally, a reverse difference weighted strategy is employed to dynamically combine different correction results, yielding the final prediction results. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified using the data from a photovoltaic power station in North Hebei.

     

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