基于ISO-VMD与改进iTransformer的短期电力负荷预测

Short-term Power Load Forecasting Based on ISO-VMD and Improved iTransformer

  • 摘要: 随着可再生能源并网规模的不断扩大,电力负荷序列的波动性和不确定性显著增加,呈现出更复杂的动态变化特征,对负荷预测的准确性提出了更高的要求。为进一步提升短期电力负荷预测的性能,提出了一种基于变分模态分解(variational mode decomposition,VMD)、改进蛇形算法(improved snake optimization,ISO)、小波变换卷积(Wavelet transform convolution,WTConv)、频率增强通道注意力机制(frequency enhanced channel attention mechanism,FECAM)和改进iTransformer的短期电力负荷预测模型。该模型首先通过改进蛇形优化算法实现VMD参数的自适应搜索,并将负荷数据分解成多个本征模态函数,其次通过WTConv模块在高、低频分量上并行提取多尺度特征,精准捕捉负荷序列的异常波动;然后将基于离散余弦变换的频率增强通道注意力机制嵌入iTransformer编码器,替换其原有的自注意力机制,从而强化模型对负荷趋势与周期性的全局频域建模能力;最后将提取的多尺度特征输入改进后的iTransformer,完成负荷的精确预测。并以多地负荷数据集对模型进行验证,实验表明展现了其预测的有效性与合理性。

     

    Abstract: With the increasing integration of renewable energy, power load sequences have become more volatile and uncertain, presenting higher complexity and imposing higher demands on forecasting accuracy. To enhance the performance of short-term electricity load forecasting, this paper proposes a hybrid model that integrates Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), Improved Snake Optimization (ISO), Wavelet Transform Convolution (WTConv), Frequency-Enhanced Channel Attention Mechanism (FECAM), and an improved iTransformer. An improved snake optimization algorithm is first employed to adaptively search for the optimal VMD parameters, enabling the decomposition of the load data into a set of intrinsic mode functions. The WTConv module then extracts multi-scale features in parallel from both high-frequency and low-frequency components, thereby capturing abnormal load fluctuations. A discrete cosine transform-based frequency-enhanced channel attention mechanism is further embedded into the iTransformer encoder to replace its original self-attention mechanism, thereby strengthening global frequency-domain modeling of load trends and periodic features. Finally, the extracted multi-scale features are fed into the improved iTransformer to achieve accurate load forecasting. The proposed model is validated using multiple regional load datasets, and experimental results indicate that it attains high forecasting accuracy and exhibits strong generalization robustness.

     

/

返回文章
返回