基于模糊层次分析法与支持向量机的变压器风险评估

缪芸; 缪翼军; 陈红坤; 胡畔

基于模糊层次分析法与支持向量机的变压器风险评估

1.
武汉大学电气工程学院,湖北武汉 430072;
2.
福建省泉州供电公司,福建泉州 362000

详细信息

作者简介:
缪芸(1991—),女,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为电力系统运行与控制;缪翼军(1989—),男,硕士,助理工程师,研究方向为输变电设备的风险评估;陈红坤(1967—),男,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为电力系统运行与控制等。

中图分类号: TM41
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2014-04-14
- 发布日期: 2014-12-08

Risk Assessment of Transformer Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process Method and Support Vector Machine

1.
School of Electrical Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072,China;
2.
Quanzhou Electric Power Corporation,Quanzhou 362000,China

摘要

摘要: 电力变压器是电力系统的关键设备之一。为实时、客观地评估电力变压器状态,分析其故障情况下造成的风险,本文提出了一种基于模糊层次分析法(FAHP)和支持向量机(SVM)的变压器风险评估模型。引入模糊层次分析法,综合考虑包括设备、环境、人身、电网安全4个方面的风险要素,计算变压器故障发生时的损失程度;采用支持向量机,将变压器的健康状态量作为输入,故障率作为输出,实现变压器故障率的预测。最后结合实际案例,对某地区变压器进行风险评估,仿真结果表明,该方法能够提高风险评估的有效性和准确度,为变压器的风险管理与维修决策提供可行的决策依据。
- 电力变压器 /
- 风险评估 /
- 支持向量机 /
- 模糊层次分析法 /
- 模型
Abstract: The power transformer is one of key equipments in power systems. To evaluate the real time state of power transformers objectively, and analyze the risk caused by a fault, a risk assessment model based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method and support vector machine is presented. With the introduction of fuzzy AHP (FAHP), the loss extent of transformer failure is calculated by taking such four risk factors as equipment, environment, personal and grid security into account. By using support vector machine (SVM), the amount of health status is taken as an input, and transformer failure rate is used as an output, which can predict the transformer failure rate. In the end, the risk assessment of a regional transformer is conducted. The simulation results show that proposed method can improve the effectiveness and accuracy of risk assessment, and provide practical reference for risk management and maintenance decisions of transformer.
- power transformers /
- risk assessment /
- support vector machine /
- fuzzy analytic hierarchy process /
- model

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参考文献(17)

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基于模糊层次分析法与支持向量机的变压器风险评估

作者简介: 缪 芸(1991—),女,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为电力系统运行与控制;缪翼军(1989—),男,硕士,助理工程师,研究方向为输变电设备的风险评估;陈红坤(1967—),男,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为电力系统运行与控制等 。

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Risk Assessment of Transformer Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process Method and Support Vector Machine

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目录

作者简介:
缪芸(1991—),女,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为电力系统运行与控制;缪翼军(1989—),男,硕士,助理工程师,研究方向为输变电设备的风险评估;陈红坤(1967—),男,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为电力系统运行与控制等。