Forecasting the Charging Load of Large-scale Electric Vehicle and Its Impact on the Power Grid
-
摘要: 电动汽车充电负荷时空分布预测是分析研究电动汽车充电对电网影响的前提,也是电网规划、运行调度的基础和依据。在对充电负荷影响因素分析的基础上,提出将预测区域进行分层分区,对不同功能用地的主要车辆,依据其出行链特性,基于转移概率矩阵建立描述车辆出行规律的模型。根据用户充电行为的随机性和不确定性,应用模糊推理法和概率统计法建立车辆在不同目的地的充电概率,并运用蒙特卡洛法对不同功能用地的充电负荷进行计算。最后,以A城市某片区为例,对其未来充电负荷进行预测,得到该地充电负荷的时空分布,并且分析了不同充电场所充电负荷对电网所造成的影响。Abstract: Forecasting the spatial and temporal distribution of charging load of electric vehicle is the precondition of studying its charging effect on power grid, which is the foundation and basis of power grid planning and scheduling. Based on the influencing factors analysis of the charging load, a hierarchical division of the predicting area is proposed, and the model of describing vehicles travelling rules is built based on transition probability matrix according to its travel chain characteristics of main vehicles in different functional lands. According to the randomness and uncertainty of user charging behavior, the probability of vehicles charging at different destinations is established by applying fuzzy reasoning method and probability statistics method, and the Monte Carlo method is used to calculate charging load of different functional lands. In the end, taking a certain area of city A as an example, its future charging load is forecasted, spatial and temporal distribution of charging load in the area is obtained. In addition, the effects of charging load in different charging places on the power grid are analyzed.
-
[1] 胡泽春,宋永华,徐智威,等.电动汽车接入电网的影响和利用[J].中国电机工程学报,2012,32(4):110.[2] 田立亭,张明霞,汪奂伶.电动汽车与电网影响的评估和解决方案[J].中国电机工程学报,2012,32(31):4349.[3] 李慧玲,白晓民.电动汽车充电对配电网的影响及对 策[J].电力系统自动化,2011,35(17):3843.[4] 王锡凡,邵成成,王秀丽,等.电动汽车充电负荷与调度控制策略综述[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(1):110.[5] Qian K J,Wang Y.Modeling of load demand due to EV battery charging in distribution systems[J].IEEE Trans on Power System,2011,26(2):802810.[6] Ashtari A,Bibeau E,Shahidinejad S,et al.PEV charging profile prediction and analysis based on vehicle usage data[J].IEEE Trans on Smart Grid,2012,3(1):341350.[7] Tang Difei,Wang Peng.Probabilistic modeling of nodal charging demand based on spatial-temporal dynamics of moving electric vehicles[J].IEEE Trans on Smart Grid,2015,15(3):19.[8] Bae S,Kwasinski A.Spatial and temporal model of electric vehicle charging demand[J].IEEE Trans on Smart Grid,2012,3(1):394403.[9] 肖白,周潮,穆刚.空间电力负荷预测方法综述与展望[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(25):7892.[10]张洪财,胡泽春,宋永华,等.考虑时空分布的电动汽车充电负荷预测方法[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(1):1320.[11]王瑞.基于用地区位分析的停车需求预测研究[D].昆明:昆明理工大学,2010.[12]关宏志,王鑫,王雪.停车需求预测方法研究[J].北京工业大学学报,2006,32(7):600604.[13]US Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration,2009 National Household Travel Survey [EB/OL].http://nhts.ornl.gov,2009.[14]Bowman J L and Ben-Akiva M E. Activity-based disaggregate travel demand model system with activity schedules [J].Transportation Research Part,2000(15):128.[15]温剑锋,陶顺,肖湘宁,等.基于出行链随机模拟的电动汽车充电需求分析[J].电网技术,2015,39(6):1477 1484.[16]周涛,韩周涛,韩筱璞,等.人类行为时空特性的统计力学[J].电子科技大学学报,2013,42(4):481540.[17]许志勇.基于活动链的居民出行需求预测模型研究[D].成都:西南交通大学.2010. -

计量
- 文章访问数: 952
- HTML全文浏览量: 27
- PDF下载量: 21
- 被引次数: 0