基于模糊层次分析法的风速短期预测组合模型
The Combined Model of Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Fuzzy AHP
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摘要: 针对风速预测的特点以及人为判断的模糊性, 为提高风速预测精度, 文中提出了基于模糊层次分析法的风速预测组合模型。该模型以风速预测周期、风速的震荡性与预测者对预测模型的信赖度为目标准则;考虑到专家判断的模糊性, 采用三角模糊数来表征专家判断信息, 并通过层次分析法对专家判断结果进行处理得到各方案的最优权重。该组合模型综合考虑影响风速预测的多种不确定性因素, 在综合不同模型预测结果的基础上引入专家经验。实际算例表明, 该组合模型能有效提高风速预测的精度。Abstract: In view of the features of wind speed forecasting and the innate uncertainty of judgments, a combined model based on the fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was presented in the paper to improve the wind speed forecasting accuracy. The criteria proposed in this paper are not only the wind speed forecast cycle but also the fluctuation of the wind speed and the reliability of the forecast models. The combined model adopts triangular fuzzy number to indicate expert judgment information according to its fuzziness, and uses AHP to deal with optimizing weight of each scheme as to expert judgment results. In the combined model, multiple uncertain factors that influence wind speed forecasting are taken into consideration, and expert experience is introduced based on different model forecasting results. Example results show that the combined model can effectively improve the accuracy of wind speed forecasting.