魏明奎, 叶葳, 沈靖, 周泓, 蔡绍荣, 王渝红, 沈力. 基于自组织特征神经网络和最小二乘支持向量机的短期电力负荷预测方法[J]. 现代电力, 2021, 38(1): 17-23. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2020.0201
引用本文: 魏明奎, 叶葳, 沈靖, 周泓, 蔡绍荣, 王渝红, 沈力. 基于自组织特征神经网络和最小二乘支持向量机的短期电力负荷预测方法[J]. 现代电力, 2021, 38(1): 17-23. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2020.0201
WEI Mingkui, YE Wei, SHEN Jing, ZHOU Hong, CAI Shaorong, WANG Yuhong, SHEN Li. Short-Term Load Forecasting Method Based on Self-Organizing Feature Mapping Neural Network and GA-Least Square SVC Model[J]. Modern Electric Power, 2021, 38(1): 17-23. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2020.0201
Citation: WEI Mingkui, YE Wei, SHEN Jing, ZHOU Hong, CAI Shaorong, WANG Yuhong, SHEN Li. Short-Term Load Forecasting Method Based on Self-Organizing Feature Mapping Neural Network and GA-Least Square SVC Model[J]. Modern Electric Power, 2021, 38(1): 17-23. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2020.0201

基于自组织特征神经网络和最小二乘支持向量机的短期电力负荷预测方法

Short-Term Load Forecasting Method Based on Self-Organizing Feature Mapping Neural Network and GA-Least Square SVC Model

  • 摘要: 准确的负荷预测对于整个电力系统经济有效运行有着重要的意义。针对负荷预测集和预测模型作出协同优化改进,提出了基于粒子群(Particle Swarm Optimization,PSO)优化的自组织特征映射网络(Self-organizing Feature Mapping,SOFM)和遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm,GA)优化的最小二乘支持向量机(Least Squares Support Vector Machine,LSSVM)的短期电力负荷预测方法。使用自适应权重的粒子群算法对SOFM的权值进行优化处理,采用优化的PSO-SOFM对原始负荷数据进行分类处理,得到多组训练集。针对每组训练集建立LSSVM预测模型,并使用GA优化其关键参数,最终得到GA-LSSVM预测模型。最后利用已有的负荷数据进行了负荷预测,验证了该方法的准确性和有效性。

     

    Abstract: Accurate load forecasting is very important for economic and effective operation of whole power grid. To make collaborative optimization improvement for load orecasting set and the forecasting model, based on particle swarm optimization- self-organizing feature mapping (PSO-SOFM) and genetic algorithm-based least square support vector machine (GA-LSSVM) a short-term power load forecasting method was proposed. The adaptive weighted PSO was used to optimize the weight of SOFM neural network, and the optimized PSO-SOFM neural network was used to classify the sort processing the original load date to obtain multi groups of training sets. For each group of training set a least square support vector machine forecasting model was established and its key parameters were optimized by GA, finally a GA-LSSVM forecasting model was obtained. Finally, performing load forecasting by existed load data, the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method are verified.

     

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