张超林, 顾丹珍, 黄阮明, 洪睿洁. 计及季节特性与日特性的多源–荷联合场景生成方法研究[J]. 现代电力. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2022.0392
引用本文: 张超林, 顾丹珍, 黄阮明, 洪睿洁. 计及季节特性与日特性的多源–荷联合场景生成方法研究[J]. 现代电力. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2022.0392
ZHANG Chaolin, GU Danzhen, HUANG Ruanming, HONG Ruijie. Multi-source-charge Joint Scene Generation Method Considering Seasonal and Diurnal Characteristics[J]. Modern Electric Power. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2022.0392
Citation: ZHANG Chaolin, GU Danzhen, HUANG Ruanming, HONG Ruijie. Multi-source-charge Joint Scene Generation Method Considering Seasonal and Diurnal Characteristics[J]. Modern Electric Power. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2022.0392

计及季节特性与日特性的多源–荷联合场景生成方法研究

Multi-source-charge Joint Scene Generation Method Considering Seasonal and Diurnal Characteristics

  • 摘要: 场景生成是应用序贯蒙特卡洛方法进行含可再生能源的电力系统可靠性评估的基础。传统的时间序列生成方法不能同时反映出风–光–荷的季节性变化趋势与昼夜变化的规律,并且鲜有研究同时考虑风–光–荷在时间上的相关性。该文将一年分为12个部分,按月份对风–光–荷历史数据的季节特性与日特性进行特征提取,形成该地区的天气–负荷特征参数库,并提出基于伊藤随机过程的时间序列生成模型,在此基础上生成多源–荷联合场景。仿真结果显示,该文提出的时间序列生成方法体现出了风–光–荷的季节特性以及日特性。生成的多源–荷联合场景满足了风–光–荷在时间上的相关性,在反映某地区风–光–荷的实际情况时有更高的准确性。

     

    Abstract: Scenario generation forms a foundation for the application of sequential Monte Carlo method in the field of reliability assessment for power systems with renewable energy. Traditional time series generation methods cannot reflect both the seasonal and diurnal variations of wind-irradiation-load simultaneously, and few studies account for the temporal correlation of wind-irradiation-load at the same time. In this paper, we divide a year into twelve segments and extract the seasonal and daily characteristics of the historical data by month. These data are utilized to form a weather-load characteristic parameter library, and thus a time series generative models is established based on ITO random process. The aforementioned basis leads to the generation of a multi-source-load joint scenario. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed time series generation method effectively captures the seasonal and diurnal characteristics of wind-irradiation-load. The generated multi-source-load combined scene has higher accuracy in reflecting the actual situation in a specific area.

     

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