雷霆, 彭昊宇. 基于概率模型集成的含云储能多微电网市场主从博弈优化调度[J]. 现代电力. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0096
引用本文: 雷霆, 彭昊宇. 基于概率模型集成的含云储能多微电网市场主从博弈优化调度[J]. 现代电力. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0096
LEI Ting, PENG Haoyu. Master-Slave Game Optimization Scheduling of Multi-Microgrid Market with Cloud Energy Storage Based on Probabilistic Model Integration[J]. Modern Electric Power. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0096
Citation: LEI Ting, PENG Haoyu. Master-Slave Game Optimization Scheduling of Multi-Microgrid Market with Cloud Energy Storage Based on Probabilistic Model Integration[J]. Modern Electric Power. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0096

基于概率模型集成的含云储能多微电网市场主从博弈优化调度

Master-Slave Game Optimization Scheduling of Multi-Microgrid Market with Cloud Energy Storage Based on Probabilistic Model Integration

  • 摘要: 为促进储能和用户侧资源高效利用,提高新能源消纳效率,提出计及用户需求响应和云储能的多微电网主从博弈优化调度策略。首先提出一种概率模型集成的新方法,应用于源、荷功率预测以及电价预测。构建基于kappa系数与准确率权重的证据修正方法,改进Dempster-Shafer(D-S)证据理论信息集成框架,集成多种概率模型,生成分布式能源出力场景集;其次,设计基于需求响应与云储能运行模式的多微电网系统双层优化调度架构;建立以多微电网联合运行成本最优和用户购电成本最低的上、下双层主从博弈模型,下层模型根据生成概率集成方法确定市场报价策略及分布式电源设备出力调整策略反馈至上层模型,通过上、下双层迭代求解,实现多微电网主从博弈均衡运行优化。最后,算例分析表明,多微网系统中云储能和用户需求响应对分布式电源出力的改善起到了协同叠加的效果,能有效提高多微网系统的经济性,降低用户的购能成本。

     

    Abstract: To promote efficient utilization of energy storage and demand-side resources, improve the efficiency of new energy consumption, a multi-microgrid master-slave game optimization scheduling strategy that takes into account user demand response and cloud energy storage was proposed. Firstly, a novel probabilistic model integration method was proposed, which was applied to source and load power forecasting and electricity price forecasting. An evidence correction method was built based on kappa coefficient and accuracy rate weight to improve Dempster Shafer (D-S) evidence theory information integration framework, integrate multiple probabilistic model and generate distributed energy output scenario sets. Secondly, a dual layer optimized scheduling architecture for multi-microgrid systems based on demand response and cloud energy storage operation mode was designed; a two-layer master-slave game model with the optimal joint operation cost of multi-microgrids and the lowest user purchase cost was established: The lower level model determines the market quotation strategy and distributed power equipment output adjustment strategy based on the generation probability integration method, and feeds back to the upper level model. The optimization of multi-microgrid master-slave game equilibrium operation was achieved by iteratively solving the upper and lower layers. Finally, case analysis shows that cloud energy storage and user demand response in a multi microgrid system have a synergistic effect on improving the output of distributed power generation, effectively improving the economy of the multi microgrid system and reducing user energy purchasing costs.

     

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