方磊, 楚成博, 何映虹, 冯隆基, 刘福政, 王宁, 张法业. 基于自适应辛几何模态分解−多元线性回归−卷积长短时记忆的台区电力负荷预测[J]. 现代电力. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0112
引用本文: 方磊, 楚成博, 何映虹, 冯隆基, 刘福政, 王宁, 张法业. 基于自适应辛几何模态分解−多元线性回归−卷积长短时记忆的台区电力负荷预测[J]. 现代电力. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0112
FANG Lei, CHU Chengbo, HE Yinghong, FENG Longji, LIU Fuzheng, WANG Ning, ZHANG Faye. Power Load Forecasting in Station Areas bBased on ASGMD-MLR-CLSTM[J]. Modern Electric Power. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0112
Citation: FANG Lei, CHU Chengbo, HE Yinghong, FENG Longji, LIU Fuzheng, WANG Ning, ZHANG Faye. Power Load Forecasting in Station Areas bBased on ASGMD-MLR-CLSTM[J]. Modern Electric Power. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0112

基于自适应辛几何模态分解−多元线性回归−卷积长短时记忆的台区电力负荷预测

Power Load Forecasting in Station Areas bBased on ASGMD-MLR-CLSTM

  • 摘要: 准确预测台区的电力负荷,能够促使电力企业合理安排调度计划,保障台区电力安全和经济稳定运行。为了充分挖掘电力负荷数据的特征,提高预测的精度,提出了一种基于自适应辛几何模态分解(adaptive symplectic geometry mode decomposition, ASGMD)、多元线性回归(multiple linear regression, MLR)和卷积长短时记忆(convolutional long short-term memory, CLSTM)网络的电力负荷预测方法。首先,应用ASGMD将台区负荷数据分解为弱相关和强相关两种分量;然后,利用MLR和LSTM分别对上述两种分量分别进行预测;最后,组合各模型结果得到最终负荷预测值。实验表明,所设计模型较其他模型具有更高的预测准确度。

     

    Abstract: Accurately predicting the power load in a station area can encourage power companies to arrange dispatching plans reasonably, ensuring the safety and stable economic operation of the station area. To fully exploit the characteristics of power load data and improve the accuracy of forecasting, a power load prediction method based on adaptive symplectic geometry mode decomposition (abbr. ASGMD), multiple linear regression (abbr. MLR) and convolutional long short-term memory (abbr. CLSTM) was proposed. Firstly, ASGMD was applied to decompose the station load data into two components: weakly correlated and strongly correlated. Secondly, MLR and LSTM were adopted to forecast the above two components, respectively. Finally, the load forecast value was obtained by combining the results of each model. The experiments show that the proposed method obtains higher forecasting accuracy than other models.

     

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