任鑫, 王一妹, 王华, 周利, 葛畅, 韩爽. 基于改进卷积-门控网络及Informer的两类中长期风电功率预测方法[J]. 现代电力. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0159
引用本文: 任鑫, 王一妹, 王华, 周利, 葛畅, 韩爽. 基于改进卷积-门控网络及Informer的两类中长期风电功率预测方法[J]. 现代电力. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0159
REN Xin, WANG Yimei, WANG Hua, ZHOU Li, GE Chang, HAN Shuang. Two Types of Medium-Long-Term Wind Power Forecasting Methods Based on Improved CNN-GRU and Informer[J]. Modern Electric Power. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0159
Citation: REN Xin, WANG Yimei, WANG Hua, ZHOU Li, GE Chang, HAN Shuang. Two Types of Medium-Long-Term Wind Power Forecasting Methods Based on Improved CNN-GRU and Informer[J]. Modern Electric Power. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0159

基于改进卷积-门控网络及Informer的两类中长期风电功率预测方法

Two Types of Medium-Long-Term Wind Power Forecasting Methods Based on Improved CNN-GRU and Informer

  • 摘要: 为解决常规时序预测方法在长序列预测场景下表现较差的问题,从时间分辨率降维,及加强序列长期依赖特征挖掘的角度出发,提出了两种中长期功率预测模型建模方法,实现了跨度10天、时间分辨率15min的功率预测:一方面,提出了改进卷积神经网络-门控循环单元(convolutional neural network - gate recurrent unit, CNN-GRU)的时间尺度降维模型,通过CNN模块及GRU模块分别实现了长时间序列的融合/还原,以及降维后时间序列的预测;另一方面,基于Informer网络的多头注意力机制实现了序列长期依赖特征的挖掘。算例结果表明,两种方法在不同场景下有着不同的适应性,在第10日的准确率/合格率分别能达到74.21%/73.47%、71.81%/74.48%,与常规GRU、CNN、时间卷积网络模型相比,预测精度提升明显,预测效果良好。

     

    Abstract: To solve the problem of poor performance of conventional time series forecasting methods in long sequence forecasting scenarios, from the perspectives of time resolution dimension reduction and enhancing the mining of long-term dependency features of sequences, two modeling methods for medium-to-long term power forecasting were proposed, achieving power prediction with a span of 10 days and a time resolution of 15 minutes. On the one hand, an improved convolutional neural network gate and recurrent unit (abbr. CNN-GRU) network was proposed to reduce the time scale dimension, which respectively realizes the fusion/reduction of long time series and the forecasting of time series after dimension reduction through CNN module and GRU module. On the other hand, the multi-head attention mechanism based on the Informer network achieves the mining of long-term dependent features of sequences. The example results show that the two methods have different adaptability in different scenarios, and the accuracy/qualification rates on the 10th day can reach 74.21%/73.47% and 71.81%/74.48% respectively, which are significantly improved compared with conventional GRU, CNN and time convolutional network (abbr. TCN) models.

     

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