李练兵, 高国强, 陈伟光, 付文杰, 张超, 赵莎莎. 考虑特征重组和BiGRU-Attention-XGBoost模型的超短期负荷功率预测[J]. 现代电力. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0166
引用本文: 李练兵, 高国强, 陈伟光, 付文杰, 张超, 赵莎莎. 考虑特征重组和BiGRU-Attention-XGBoost模型的超短期负荷功率预测[J]. 现代电力. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0166
LI Lianbing, GAO Guoqiang, CHEN Weiguang, FU Wenjie, ZHANG Chao, ZHAO Shasha. Ultra Short Term Load Power Prediction Considering Feature Recombination and BiGRU-Attention-XGBoost Model[J]. Modern Electric Power. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0166
Citation: LI Lianbing, GAO Guoqiang, CHEN Weiguang, FU Wenjie, ZHANG Chao, ZHAO Shasha. Ultra Short Term Load Power Prediction Considering Feature Recombination and BiGRU-Attention-XGBoost Model[J]. Modern Electric Power. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0166

考虑特征重组和BiGRU-Attention-XGBoost模型的超短期负荷功率预测

Ultra Short Term Load Power Prediction Considering Feature Recombination and BiGRU-Attention-XGBoost Model

  • 摘要: 超短期电力负荷预测作为电力系统的基本组成,对制定生产调度计划具有重要意义,然而电力负荷具有非线性、时变性和不确定性,充分挖掘其潜在特征并分别预测是提升预测准确性的关键。文中提出一种基于自适应局部迭代滤波(adaptive local iterative filtering,ALIF)的BiGRU-Attention-XGBoost电力负荷组合预测模型:基于ALIF-SE实现将历史负荷序列分解重组为周期序列、波动序列和趋势序列;通过Attention机制对BiGRU模型进行改进,并结合XGBoost模型构建基于时变权重组合的电力负荷预测模型。实验分析表明,输入模型数据经过ALIF-SE处理后预测精度有明显提升;所提组合模型在工作日和节假日均具有较好的预测效果,预测误差大部分在5%以下;通过在不同负荷数据集下进行实验对比,验证了文中预测方法的可迁移性。实验证明所提模型具有有效性、准确性和可行性。

     

    Abstract: The ultra-short-term load forecasting, as a basic component of power system forecasting, is of great significance for production scheduling planning. However, the power load, being nonlinear, time-varying and uncertain in nature, necessitates the improvement of to prediction accuracy by fully exploiting its potential characteristics and conducting separate prediction. In this paper, a combined forecasting model of BiGRU-Attention-XGBoost based on ALIF-SE is proposed. The historical load series are decomposed into periodic series, fluctuation series and trend series based on ALIF-SE. An attention mechanism is employed to improve the BIGRU model. It is then combined with XGBoost model to construct a power load forecasting model based on time-varying weight combination. The experimental results demonstrate a significant improvement in prediction accuracy of the input model after ALIF-SE treatment. Moreover, the combined model exhibits good prediction effect for both working days and holidays, with the majority of the prediction errors below 5%. The mobility of the proposed method is verified by comparing the results of experiments with different load data sets. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness, accuracy, and feasibility of the proposed model.

     

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