孙晶琪, 周振茜, 赵一航, 张卓拉, 赵会茹. “双碳”目标下碳市场与电力市场溢出效应研究[J]. 现代电力. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0172
引用本文: 孙晶琪, 周振茜, 赵一航, 张卓拉, 赵会茹. “双碳”目标下碳市场与电力市场溢出效应研究[J]. 现代电力. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0172
SUN Jingqi, ZHOU Zhenxi, ZHAO Yihang, ZHANG Zhuola, ZHAO Huiru. Research on Spillover Effect of Carbon Market and Electricity Market under the Goals of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality[J]. Modern Electric Power. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0172
Citation: SUN Jingqi, ZHOU Zhenxi, ZHAO Yihang, ZHANG Zhuola, ZHAO Huiru. Research on Spillover Effect of Carbon Market and Electricity Market under the Goals of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality[J]. Modern Electric Power. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0172

“双碳”目标下碳市场与电力市场溢出效应研究

Research on Spillover Effect of Carbon Market and Electricity Market under the Goals of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality

  • 摘要: “碳达峰、碳中和”目标提出要推进碳市场与电力市场的协同建设。为探究碳市场与电力市场的联动关系,畅通市场间价格传导信号,加强两市场的有效衔接,研究了碳市场与电力市场的溢出效应。首先,分析了碳市场与电力市场的相互作用机理;其次,基于VAR-BEKK-GARCH模型,提出了综合考虑价格信息及波动风险传递、从均值溢出和波动溢出两个维度评估碳市场与电力市场之间溢出效应的量化方法;最后,以广东省碳价和电价数据为研究样本,实证分析了碳市场与电力市场的溢出效应。结果表明,碳市场与电力市场之间不存在均值溢出效应,而存在双向的波动溢出效应,即碳市场与电力市场的联动关系主要来源于市场间波动及风险的传递。

     

    Abstract: The goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality propose to promote the collaborative construction of both carbon market and electricity market. In order to investigate the linkage relationship between the carbon market and the electricity market, smooth the price transmission signals and strengthen the effective connection between the two markets, the spillover effect of the carbon market and the electricity market was studied. Firstly, the interaction mechanism of carbon market and electricity market was analyzed. Secondly, based on the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model, a quantitative method, comprehensively considering the transmission of price information and volatility risk, was proposed to evaluate the spillover effect between the carbon market and the electricity market from two dimensions: return spillover and volatility spillover. Finally, taking carbon price and electricity price data of Guangdong Province as research case, the spillover effect of carbon market and electricity market was analyzed empirically.The results indicate that there is no return spillover effect between the carbon market and the electricity market. However, there exists a bidirectional volatility spillover effect between the two markets. This implies that the linkage between the carbon market and the electricity market mainly stems from the price fluctuation and risk transmission.

     

/

返回文章
返回