马瑾璁, 权轶, 付波, 赵熙临, 李超顺. 考虑时间感知与风险偏好的电动运营车充电决策模型[J]. 现代电力. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0207
引用本文: 马瑾璁, 权轶, 付波, 赵熙临, 李超顺. 考虑时间感知与风险偏好的电动运营车充电决策模型[J]. 现代电力. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0207
MA Jincong, QUAN Yi, FU Bo, ZHAO Xilin, LI Chaoshun. A Decision-making Model for Electric Vehicle Operators Charging Considering Time Perception and Risk Preference[J]. Modern Electric Power. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0207
Citation: MA Jincong, QUAN Yi, FU Bo, ZHAO Xilin, LI Chaoshun. A Decision-making Model for Electric Vehicle Operators Charging Considering Time Perception and Risk Preference[J]. Modern Electric Power. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0207

考虑时间感知与风险偏好的电动运营车充电决策模型

A Decision-making Model for Electric Vehicle Operators Charging Considering Time Perception and Risk Preference

  • 摘要: 电动运营车车主的充电决策行为由客观因素和主观偏好共同决定,具有非理性特征。为了更准确地描述电动运营车车主的非理性充电决策行为,建立同时考虑收益、时间、风险3个要素的电动运营车充电决策模型。首先,将风险评价纳入启发式跨期决策的决策过程,建立考虑风险偏好的改进跨期决策模型;其次,对全天各个时间段车主所行里程、客单收益的历史数据进行拟合,得到典型车主收入曲线,并以典型车主为参考系,建立基于多普勒时间膨胀与收缩的时间感知模型,通过该模型得到车主主观感受下的时间;最后,综合考虑收益、时间、风险,得到车主的充电决策。通过对深圳市电动运营车的充电决策进行仿真分析,结果表明相比于一般跨期决策模型,所建模型下车主的决策带有明显的风险偏好特性,且车主对即时或延时选项的偏好会随着情绪产生变化。结果表明,所建模型可以从时间感知与风险偏好的角度更准确地描述车主的非理性决策行为,符合经验性规律,为研究大规模电动汽车的充电行为提供了新的思路。

     

    Abstract: The decision-making behavior of electric vehicle owners is co-determined by both objective factors and subjective preferences, which has irrational characteristics. To describe this irrational charging decision behavior more accurately, a decision-making model for electric vehicles charging was established with three factors taken into account: earnings, time, and risk. Firstly, the risk evaluation was incorporated into the decision-making process of heuristic inter-temporal decision-making, establishing an improved inter-temporal decision-making model that incorporates risk preferences. Secondly, the historical data of mileage and individual customer revenue during different time periods throughout the day were fitted, obtaining the income curve of typical electric vehicle operators. With the typical electric vehicle operator as the reference, a time perception model was established based on Doppler time dilation and contraction, so as to describe the subjective perception of time by electric vehicle operators. Finally, the decision-making of the electric vehicle operator charging was conducted by considering earnings, time, and risk comprehensively. Through simulation analysis of the charging decision made by electric vehicle operators in Shenzhen, it is observed that compared to conventional inter-temporal decision-making models, the model developed in this study exhibits distinct risk preference characteristics in the decision-making process of electric vehicle operators. Moreover, the preference of electric vehicle operators for immediate or delayed charging options varies with their emotional states. The results indicate that the proposed model offers a more precise depiction of the irrational decision behavior of electric vehicle operators from the perspective of time perception and risk preferences. It aligns with empirical regularities and provides insights for investigating the charging behavior of large-scale electric vehicles.

     

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