黄贤明, 郝雨辰, 霍雪松, 柴赟, 彭程. 基于时空混合注意力机制的超短时风电功率预测方法[J]. 现代电力. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0246
引用本文: 黄贤明, 郝雨辰, 霍雪松, 柴赟, 彭程. 基于时空混合注意力机制的超短时风电功率预测方法[J]. 现代电力. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0246
HUANG Xianming, HAO Yuchen, HUO Xuesong, CHAI Yun, PENG Cheng. An Ultra-short Term Wind Power Prediction Method Based on Spatio-temporal Hybrid Attention Mechanism[J]. Modern Electric Power. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0246
Citation: HUANG Xianming, HAO Yuchen, HUO Xuesong, CHAI Yun, PENG Cheng. An Ultra-short Term Wind Power Prediction Method Based on Spatio-temporal Hybrid Attention Mechanism[J]. Modern Electric Power. DOI: 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2023.0246

基于时空混合注意力机制的超短时风电功率预测方法

An Ultra-short Term Wind Power Prediction Method Based on Spatio-temporal Hybrid Attention Mechanism

  • 摘要: 针对风电功率预测精度差及一些风电场没有气象传感器的问题,提出不依赖气象数据的风力发电预测模型算法。首先使用基于滑动窗口的方法对数据进行切分,构造时序数据,然后通过使用一维卷积网络和长短期记忆网络(long short-term memory neural network, LSTM)对具有长期依赖性的时间序列数据进行空间和时间维度上的特征提取,然后采用时空混合注意力机制对特征进行融合并进行功率预测。通过对华东某风电场的3年数据进行算例分析,证明了上述预测模型的实用性且结果比CNN-LSTM模型、CNN模型和LSTM模型更加准确,证明了所提预测方法的有效性和实用性,为在实际场景中对功率预测的可靠性分析提供支持。

     

    Abstract: In response to the challenges posed by poor forecasting accuracy of wind power and inadequate meteorological sensors in certain wind farms, a wind power prediction model algorithm independent of meteorological data is proposed. Firstly, the sliding window based method is utilized to split the data and construct the time sequence data. The one-dimensional convolution network and long short-term memory network (LSTM) are subsequently employed to extract spatial and time dimension features from time series data with long term dependence. Finally, a spatio-temporal hybrid attention mechanism is employed to fuse features and predict power. Through the case analysis of three-year data from a wind farm in eastern China, the practicability of the above prediction model is proved and the results are more accurate than those of CNN-LSTM model, CNN model and LSTM model. Both validity and practicability of the proposed prediction method are proved, providing substantial support for reliability analysis of power prediction in actual scenarios.

     

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