计及用户非理性行为的售电公司套餐定价策略

Tariff Packaged Pricing Strategy for Electricity Retailers Considering Consumer Irrationality

  • 摘要: 针对售电公司传统单一定价方法难以对新型电力用户实现动态精准定价与行为引导的问题,提出一种多级市场框架下计及用户非理性行为的售电公司套餐定价方法。首先,基于售电公司运营模式构建主从博弈框架,建立套餐定价的基础模型;其次,通过构造下降的二次凸函数来模拟用户的损失厌恶行为,结合用户购电成本模型建立具有非理性行为用户的需求响应模型;然后,针对用户用电波动和电价的不确定性,引入条件风险价值(conditional value at risk, CVaR)理论建立考虑风险收益下售电公司的综合决策模型;最后,建立套餐电价的优化模型,使用GUROBI求解器和改进粒子群算法进行求解。MATLAB仿真结果表明,多级市场的引入有效降低用户的成本,所提定价方法可以提高售电公司收益,平滑用户负荷曲线,减少发电侧调节压力。

     

    Abstract: To address the challenge that traditional single-pricing methods used by power retailers struggle to achieve dynamic and precise pricing as well as behavior guidance for new-type power users, a power retail packaged pricing method considering users' irrationality under a multi-level market framework is proposed. First, a principal-agent game framework is constructed based on the operational mode of power retailers to establish the foundational model for packaged pricing. Second, a decreasing quadratic convex function is constructed to simulate users' loss-aversion behavior, and a demand response model for users exhibiting irrational behavior is established by combining it with the user's power procurement cost model. Subsequently, in view of the uncertainties associated with users' power consumption fluctuations and electricity prices, the conditional value at risk (CVaR) theory is introduced to establish a comprehensive risk-return decision-making model for power retailers. Finally, an optimization model for packaged electricity prices is established, and the GUROBI solver along with an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm are employed to solve it. MATLAB simulations indicate that the introduction of the multi-level market effectively reduces users' costs, and the proposed pricing method increases power retailers’ profits, smooths the users' load curves, and alleviates regulation pressure on the generation side.

     

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