李咏凯, 张建华, 王国栋, 任燕峰, 张小伟. 一种新的灰色模型在城市年用电量预测中的应用[J]. 现代电力, 2010, 27(4): 13-16.
引用本文: 李咏凯, 张建华, 王国栋, 任燕峰, 张小伟. 一种新的灰色模型在城市年用电量预测中的应用[J]. 现代电力, 2010, 27(4): 13-16.
Li Yongkai, Zhang Jianhua, Wang Guodong, Ren Yanfeng, Zhang Xiaowei. Application of a New Grey Model to City Electricity Demand Forecasting[J]. Modern Electric Power, 2010, 27(4): 13-16.
Citation: Li Yongkai, Zhang Jianhua, Wang Guodong, Ren Yanfeng, Zhang Xiaowei. Application of a New Grey Model to City Electricity Demand Forecasting[J]. Modern Electric Power, 2010, 27(4): 13-16.

一种新的灰色模型在城市年用电量预测中的应用

Application of a New Grey Model to City Electricity Demand Forecasting

  • 摘要: 城市年用电量由于受经济、社会、气候等多种因素影响, 具有一定的灰色特征。针对传统GM(1, 1)模型预测误差较大的缺点, 将直接灰色预测模型(DGM)引入到年用电量预测中, 从而避开了灰微分方程参数辨识时合理选取背景值的问题。以DGM的还原值与实际值的平均相对误差最小化为目标, 建立了相应的优化模型并设计了基于微分进化的求解算法。对5种不同增长规律的城市电网年用电量进行预测, 并与多种预测方法进行比较, 结果验证了所提方法的有效性。

     

    Abstract: Because annual city electricity demand is influenced by such factors as economy, society and climate, it possesses certain grey characteristics. As to the big forecasting errors of traditional GM (1, 1), the direct grey model (DGM) is introduced in city electricity demand forecasting, which can avoid selecting the background value when identifying the parameters of grey differential equation. To minimize the average relative error between restored value and real value of DGM, optimize model is built and the algorithm based on differential evolution is proposed. Annual electricity demand of 5 cities with different increasing rates is forecasted, and is compared with that forecasted by other methods. The results show the practicability of the proposed method.

     

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