崔 勇, 王 川, 陈小龙, 范名贵. 基于灰色马尔科夫预测模型的中长期电力负荷预测[J]. 现代电力, 2011, 28(3): 38-41.
引用本文: 崔 勇, 王 川, 陈小龙, 范名贵. 基于灰色马尔科夫预测模型的中长期电力负荷预测[J]. 现代电力, 2011, 28(3): 38-41.
Cui Yong, Wang Chuan, Chen Xiaolong, Fan Minggui. Application of Grey Markov Prediction Model onLong Term Load Forecasting[J]. Modern Electric Power, 2011, 28(3): 38-41.
Citation: Cui Yong, Wang Chuan, Chen Xiaolong, Fan Minggui. Application of Grey Markov Prediction Model onLong Term Load Forecasting[J]. Modern Electric Power, 2011, 28(3): 38-41.

基于灰色马尔科夫预测模型的中长期电力负荷预测

Application of Grey Markov Prediction Model onLong Term Load Forecasting

  • 摘要: 中长期负荷预测在电网发展规划编制中占有重要地位,而其关键是数学模型的建立。本文建立了基于马尔科夫修正的灰色负荷预测模型,利用灰色预测模型对未来负荷进行预测,对预测结果采用马尔可夫链预测方法进行改进,提高其预测的准确性。采用灰色马尔科夫模型对某市用电需求负荷建立预测模型,预测了2006至2008年的用电负荷,与实际用电负荷进行对比,结果验证了灰色马尔科夫模型在对电力负荷进行长期预测时具有较高的精度。

     

    Abstract: The development of middle and long term load forecasting plays an important role in power grid planning, but the key issue is to build mathematical models. The grey load forecasting model based on modified Markov is built in this paper, in which the grey forecasting model is used to forecast future load and forecasting results is modified by Markov forecasting method to improve its accuracy. In the end, grey Markov model is built to forecast load demand for certain city from 2006 to 2008, which verify the high accuracy of application of grey Markov model to long term load forecasting through comparison with that of actual load.

     

/

返回文章
返回