黎静华, 桑川川, 甘一夫, 潘毅. 风电功率预测技术研究综述[J]. 现代电力, 2017, 34(3): 1-11.
引用本文: 黎静华, 桑川川, 甘一夫, 潘毅. 风电功率预测技术研究综述[J]. 现代电力, 2017, 34(3): 1-11.
LI Jinghua, SANG Chuanchuan, GAN Yifu, PAN Yi. A Review of Researches on Wind Power Forecasting Technology[J]. Modern Electric Power, 2017, 34(3): 1-11.
Citation: LI Jinghua, SANG Chuanchuan, GAN Yifu, PAN Yi. A Review of Researches on Wind Power Forecasting Technology[J]. Modern Electric Power, 2017, 34(3): 1-11.

风电功率预测技术研究综述

A Review of Researches on Wind Power Forecasting Technology

  • 摘要: 为了更好地开展风电功率预测的应用研究工作,以点预测、区间预测、概率预测以及场景预测为主线,对现有的风电功率预测技术进行了归纳、总结和梳理。首先,分析了风电功率预测的难点,按照不同的时空尺度、预测形式、预测对象以及预测模型对风电功率预测进行了分类;基于不同的分类,分别阐述了当前风电功率预测的模型、理论及方法;然后,分析了国内外主要的风电功率预测软件和系统,并总结了风电功率预测误差的评判标准和指标;最后,探讨未来风电功率预测的发展趋势。本文的研究工作,可为风电功率预测研究以及风电功率预测系统的开发应用,提供较为全面的参考信息。

     

    Abstract: To better develop the application and research on wind power forecasting, this paper summarizes, unscrambles, and concludes the existing technologies of wind power forecasting by tracking a mainline of point forecasting, interval forecasting, probability forecasting and scenario forecasting. Firstly, the difficulties of wind power forecasting are analyzed, and the classifications of the wind power forecasting are categorized according to different time scales, forecasting forms, forecasting objectives and forecasting models. In addition, the current model, theory and method of wind power forecasting are described based on different classification. Then, the main wind power forecasting software and systems at home and abroad are discussed, and the evaluation criteria and indexes of the prediction error for wind power forecasting are summarized. In the end, the development trends of wind power forecasting in future are discussed. The research work of this paper will provide comprehensive reference information for the development of wind power forecasting and the application of wind power forecasting system.

     

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